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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

  • hjclasvegas6969 hjclasvegas6969 Mar 11, 2013 10:36 AM Flag

    jad, you'll love this, Author of the spectacularly wrong ‘Dow 36,000′ has new thoughts on the stock market



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    • Thank you for the heads up on article.

      In a perverse sort of way, I still treasure their book. It has an honored place on my bookshelf. I bought the September 1999 Atlantic magazine for the teaser article (the article, by the way, is still available online) promoting the book, read it in the car, and then immediately re-entered the bookstore to place a pre-publication order for the book, which I picked up on the very first day that it was available. I was absolutely shocked. How could they possibly be wrong? They were, after all, using my beloved dividend discount model. That book cost me a lot of money. I had enough common sense not to buy (I had stopped buying in early 1999), but like a deer in the headlights, I couldn't bring myself to sell (what if they were right?), and that's where I lost. It took me literally years of studying growth rates, discount rates and equity risk premiums to see where they had gone wrong.

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