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  • mnemory00 mnemory00 Mar 20, 2014 12:39 AM Flag

    Hope It's Just A Cold War

    Putin, charging into Crimea and seizing part of Ukraine, has taken unprecedented action. After WWII, Stalin by virtue of advancing armies found himself sitting on top of eastern Europe and a much-expanded Russian footprint. He just held on to it and didn't advance. History and containment happened. No Russian leader attempted to expand the Russian footprint. Hungary and 1968 were within the existing footprint of nations occupied by Russian forces at the end of WWII. Even Stalin wasn't crazy enough to attack U.S. allies. Now, Russia was downsized when the Soviet empire fell, but they got the best parts - Moscow, oil and gas, etc. By making a land grab, Putin's off into uncharted territory. The Cold War was static in powder keg Europe, with peripheral conflicts like Vietnam.

    Powder kegs go hot easily. Really hot. Stalin, Kruschev, Brezhnev, Gorbachev never lit that powder trail. Obama has used force more than any President since Nixon, but he's a consensus guy. The consensus has been to not attack and destroy Russian forces in Crimea in defense of Ukraine, and that's where he is. McCain might have attacked the invaders. Cheney advocated destroying invading Russian forces in Georgia in 2008. The consensus can change in D.C. With more Russian aggression, it will change. This war will go hot. Why? Because Putin's attacking and occupying other countries, which no Soviet leader was stupid enough to do.

    How does it go supernova? Russia attacks more of Ukraine, and actually living up to the treaty, America obliterates the attacking Russian military to protect Ukraine. Can we devastate the attacking divisions of the Russian military conventionally quickly? They're like Iraq, which bought their best stuff. Contrary to D.C. expectations, Russia launches a nuclear response. Does the U.S. have strategic supremacy? If not yet achieved, we will soon. The Aegis Destroyer system is part of a strategic defense in depth. We win, but a nuke slips by ...

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    • OBAMA is now 100% prepared for sudden nuclear war with Russia. He ordered commanders to be replaced with political jockeys to push the button on his command and order. The nuclear missile site in USA has been totally revamped with amateurs at the controls. Obama will give the smoke signal and KABOOM. Thousands and Thousands of nuke missiles will fly into Russia. HOOORAY ! IT IS WORLD WAR THREE !!!!!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • The Europeans gave Obama the Nobel Prize for Peace. Now they will want Obama to threaten russia with war if the aggression stands. Did europe shoot itself in the (left) foot ?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to sk4543
      • We're not going to get involved militarily in a Slavic border dispute with Obama in the White House. A Cold War with financial sanctions on Russian banks is fine for the economy. A hot war is disastrous, and only can happen if Putin invades Ukraine proper, and probably not even then with our current restrained President. The Russians just need to wake up and smell the coffee. Militarily, they are totally outclassed and nobody is going to let them retake Eastern Europe because they're waiving around H-bombs. We got 'em too. If Putin invades a NATO country, the U.S. will destroy the Russian military's offensive capabilities in a couple of weeks with no boots on the ground. Then the NATO country's population and soldiers can kick them out. Eventually, the Russians are going to figure out that Putin's military adventures are terrible for Russia. The Ukrainians are broke and dependent. They can make a deal without military force. Instead of playing Putin's KGB/Stalinesque games that turn Russia into a pariah when the Russians should be in with us and the Europeans, the Russians can pay for ethnically Russian areas like Crimea, and possibly some other border areas, with money and natural gas. Then, Putin's current course can become incredibly detrimental to Russia as we impose financial isolation, and it's useless also. Strange that he's doing it at all. Crimea's just going to cost them money. Putin seems to be a romantic nationalist along the lines of Mussolini.

    • WAR IT IS. HOT OR COLD WON'T MATTER.

      You decide?
      Putin controls his dog without a leash, Obama is always seen being dragged by his dog...
      Putin is a muscular stud muffin, Obama is a runt...
      Putin drinks quality beer, Obama gulps down cheap malt beer...
      Putin has a hot mistress, Obama has a cold subway sandwich...
      Putin has the eye of the Siberian Tiger, Obama is a silly wimp.

      War with Russia will prove fatal to USA. Putin is going to freeze hydrocarbon trade sending the inflation into triple digits. USA and Europe will file Chapter 7 bankruptcy in a month.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • The sanctions on the one Russian bank are fine if the point is to fire a warning shot. That's ceding Crimea. That's ceding the Russian military invasion and seizure of Crimea despite U.S. guarantees of Ukraine's borders. This warning shot is just about preventing a full invasion of Ukraine, like they did to Georgia. Look, when the situation changes you've got to roll with it. Putin's gone full dictator now. He will invade anyone who he can get away with. Like a bad investor, D.C. is anchoring. The situation has changed. Russia is a rogue state. The Russian military is an existential threat not only to the small independent nations that emerged from the fallen Soviet empire, not only to Eastern Europe, but as they waive around their H-bombs, to the United States. The ability of the Russians to fund their enormous defense budget - which dwarfs the defense spending of the prosperous nations of Europe like Germany - must be ended. The Russian economy must be destroyed unless the evacuate their troops from Crimea by a date certain. How? Just the same way Obama has wiped out that one bank. Block their banks from doing business with the United States in any way and they'll be out of business. Putin understands only power. Crush him.

      • 2 Replies to mnemory00
      • Putin is a sick dictator with the H bomb. We need to throw more sanctions at him and Russia RIGHT NOW, or this will keep going downhill. "That which you tolerate, you shall have in abundance". I hope and pray President Obama has the wisdom to deal with this potential DISASTER to all of humanity..

        Sentiment: Hold

      • Strat,
        MPR had an interesting interview on the subject of chemo-brain today and I thought of you.
        They say it's legitimate (not surprising).
        Hang in there bro....I like your real estate plan, but I don't think you should at all be content with 6% ROE.
        Real estate (imo) is designed to be leveraged, especially in this country, and especially now with artificially low subsidized fixed long term rates......it's the only way to get a decent roe.
        Catch you later.

    • If a stray Russian missile gets past the missile defense agency and hits nearby where I live in California, I won't be worried about my stocks. If it hits somewhere else, I will be very unhappy because my stocks will plummet in value in a blood-curdling fashion. The Russian threat of course will be permanently eliminated immediately afterwards, but the impact of such an event on the world economy will be gigantic. We'll have a big recession. Also, some of the Russian oil and gas may be too radioactive to be used.

      How likely is it to happen anytime soon? Frankly, I don't know. I do know that Putin is unlikely to stop trying to take over countries now that he's getting away with it. I do think that Putin wants to prove that Russia's the big dog in Europe and really there's no single military there that's as big, although the quality of the German, French, U.K. etc. is there. Since Putin's a Stalin fan, he probably has noted that the U.K., despite a treaty requiring it, didn't rush over to Poland to defend it from the Nazis and Stalin when they divided it. Will we rush into Poland now? Putin may think not. My guess is he's wrong. The Russians don't understand how far along America's strategic defense has progressed. We've got miniature antimissile lasers deployed on army trucks and naval ships now, although not openly on the F35. Of course we also have strategic defense. The Aegis is a well-known part of it, but it's just to see. Aegis, you know. My guess is that faced with aggressive territorial expansion - invasion - the U.S. will respond as we did in Korea, for example. We'll fight it. We're a lot better now. There's a difference in kind between our stealth and JDAMS and the Russian rocket trucks and artillery. Sitting here on our ability to obliterate the Russian military, we won't let them overrun Eastern Europe. Putin is a miscalculating machine and if he keeps going there this one gets hot.

      • 1 Reply to mnemory00
      • What's the reason for lasers? Lasers, with an electrical power supply, have an endless magazine. Each shot is pennies. It works on mortars and it works on ICBMs. We've already miniaturized these things and put them on naval ships and army trucks, openly, for missile defense. Why does the Navy love them? Endless magazine. Pennies per shot. We're unleashing a whole new series of aircraft carriers now. Why? Their new reactors generate much more electricity. What for? Antimissile defense. We openly have this stuff now.

        Lasers and other energy weapons positioned so as to have Russian ICBMs in view similarly have an endless magazine. Therefore, the capacity of the system is highly flexible. More Russian missiles are handled easily. It's not a just a few anti-missile missiles. It's a force of lasers keeping watch and able to target endlessly throughout the slow ascent phase of ICBMs. We are good to go, or will be soon, and the whole deal with Poland sites is to protect Europe as well. It's all coming together.

        The Cold War is over. Putin just doesn't know it. This is Pax American now dawning.

 
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