Here's my way of calculating value of BRK
ASSUMING that WEB does not add much value to it and
assuming that their insurance business does not
1) Take all BRK investable funds
investable funds from GRN after adding 25% to their float
amount (because they cede about 25% of their premiums to
2) Subtract 80% of deferred
3) Add value of UNDERWRITING GAIN at GEICO, which is
about equal to their float amount, 4 bil.
value of their op businesses at, say, P/E of 30
(because they are so damn good)
My calculation give
me the number of $54,065 per share.
company is traded at about 62,000 per share.
think that this kind of opportunity just does not come
rinolthe - i posted a valuation of BRK via the IV
of GRN (argueably easier to calculate) and
assumptions of WEB buying 'at a discount' - it appeared
earlier on this board, but i cannot find it using the
if you want a copy, email me
(address is in my profile) and i'll send you a copy. It
isn't the only way, and requires some *very* argueable
assumptions, but is an attempt to come at the whole issue from
a different direction.
As far as stock
*price* is concerned, i don't think that anyone who
couldn't cope with a stock retracing it's last year - or
two's gains should call kid themselves that they're not
speculators - for BRK this means down to the
Hey 401K protectionist conspiracy theorists, I
The 401K is already protected.
You can sell everything, put
it into money market
with absolutely no tax liability. What's
you loose by holding on between the end and
of a business cycle and loose maybe 50%, you can't
any of your losses, not that you could
write off any signifigant
losses outside your
Everyone can protect their 401K assets by selling out. In
the rules encourage it.
My graph didn't come out quite
Anyway.. .visualize that game on the Price is Right where
the little guy is climbing a mountain and when he
gets to the top he falls off. Or maybe where the
roadrunner and the coyote are running up a hill which ends
in a cliff.... and the coyote keeps going up until
he realizes what a bunch of BS it is and then he
falls clear down to the ground... goes smack.... gets
up and starts walking a little and everyone laughs
because he's as flat as a pancake... but then... oh
darn... a big rock fell on him.
Good Luck to all
Oh I totally agree with you. Except I don't think
the market is going to tank soon enough.
fear is this. Andrea Mitchell's whipping boy (and his
successor) will keep tinkering with the market to preserve
everyone's 401(k)'s for as long as possible. But of course
the day before I retire, entropy will rear its ugly
Anyway, enough with the manipulation
already. Burn Baby Burn. Dow at 1500 by December,
But... here is what's really going to happen in a crude
Today My Retirement
Sometimes I get
bored at work
Good Luck to All... (especially the
I read the book last week just days before the
U.S. dollar rose to new highs, gold slumped to new
lows, and reports of commodity deflation and the
russian crisis hit the media. Too close for comfort. I
sold everything at market and stashed the funds into a
money market account. Prechter's predictions (for
1995/6) were darn close to what was actually happening in
That said, I find a lot of hocus pocus and dubious
'science' in his citations of the elliot wave theory. His
book reminded me of my (successful) visit to a
chiropractor to have my back fixed. Crack. Crack. Done!
(Instead of weeks of agonizing pain at the medical
doctor.) But when the Chiro started spouting his
'science', I ran!
Where Prechter may have it right is
that the economy does indeed run in cycles and some
are bigger and longer than others. Almost no one now
alivehas experienced a true economic depression. Maybe it
is time for one now.
I won't read too much
reliability into his specific Dow predictions, but I agree
with his point that it makes sense to switch to cash
in what is turning to a deflationary environment. If
he is wrong, we won't have the profits we might have
made in the markets .. but if he is right, the losses
of 'holding on' to our shares may truly be immense.
Prechter practices financial astrology, post
facto paradigm fitting, and just plain hyping to the
masses. Not a shred of plausible mechanism. Any dataset
can be Fourier transformed and you'll find some
frequencies are larger than others. Proves
Soros "Alchemy of Finance" for a better handle on these
Peter_xyz, I'd love to see your valuation of BRK,
did I miss it? I agree that KO, G are probably
overvalued. They got that way when it got out that WEB had
heavily bought. Good time to sell G to my way of
thinking; as a (try to be) clean shaven male, the triple
blade at a higher price was a really BOGUS idea.
Since you did not receive your proxy and meeting
notification, check the berkshirehathaway.com web site for more
information about the special meeting September 16th at 9:30
a.m. in Omaha at the Orpheum Theater, 409 S. 16th
I think the market will always be manipulated.
Fed will always tweak it. Everyone wants to grab
what they can.
I am 29. All of my 401K has been
maxed out and put
into money market. I didn't want
to get in at the
end of the business cycle. I
don't want all the
executives to run off with my
Buffet says it is nice to have a big wad of cash
the bottom. Do the math, it makes perfect
If you are investing for the long term, it
make any sense at all to start from a top and
Having youth on my side, I realize I
have time to get
in after the market becomes under
I haven't finished reading
Buffetology yet; why
should I buy?
401K, in my play money account, I just
shorting stocks. It seems I don't pick stocks