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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

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  • bobo21029 bobo21029 Oct 5, 1998 8:25 AM Flag

    Here we go........

    ..........I bookmarked lowrisk.com..........I'm
    scared and don't mind saying so..........In 1929 only
    four million people were in the market, so the bubble
    was a lot smaller........What really worries me about
    this one, is the speed with which capital
    moves....with a stroke of the keyboard..........It's been real
    sad to watch trillions of wealth blown into thin air
    this summer.......years of consciencious savings
    gone........I know the overwhelming majority of folks on this
    board are sticking to the principles of Buffettology
    about welcoming the Bear as a chance to buy......but if
    you read WEB closely he says that it should be
    welcomed if you expect to be a net saver for the next five
    years......Now I ask the board.....how many could go five years
    if they lost their job....and make no mistake, when
    powerful companies like Gillette are cutting 4,700 workers
    it's a bad sign.....I gotta hunch those 4,700 impacted
    families aren't sitting around reading Ben Graham for
    solace.......I'm not listening too much to intellectuals these
    days, because my guts tell me hard times
    a-comin'.........my neighbor has a hydraulic splitter on the back of
    his tractor and we're gonna start working up some oak
    this week ..........God bless us, one and
    all............

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    • The way I look at all this is, even a economic
      catastrophe is no big deal.

      I happen to have seen an
      economic collapse of a major country.

      It looks
      scary, especially from outside, but in reality it is not
      as horrible as people think about it. There is still
      some food available, some transportation, some clothes
      etc.

      You can grow potatoes in your backyard, for example,
      and that can be a MAJOR supplement to your diet.


      From a cosmic perspective, incomes falling 70% is no
      biggie -- as long as you are not overleveraged, by for
      example a sky high mortgage and car payments.

      Now
      is a lot better time than 1929, because agriculture
      is so much more productive and cheap and people are
      not likely to be actually starving.

      Relax...

      • 1 Reply to ignoramus_
      • ......essentially you are right of
        course.....after Black Tuesday in '29 the sun still rose in the
        East next morning.....my 90 year old mother tells me
        that most people felt that so what if Wall Street got
        hit........Mainstreet was still open for business..........it was by
        1932 after months of down,down, down until the gloom
        reached full flower............you mentioned folks that
        are overleveraged and that's where I see a chilling
        difference this time..........there's just too much consumer
        installment debt out there.........if unemployment starts
        going up, real problems will arise in the credit
        system..................I do see one shining positive however...........as
        you know, Hoover took a hands off
        approach.....preferring to let the market right itself on it's own. This
        time, with 40% of the public invested, Washington will
        be under terrific pressure to move
        quickly.........which is why I feel it is so urgent to resolve the
        Clinton issue.........so that they can concentrate on the
        economy...........Gonna try to follow your advice and
        relax...........gonna head up to the barber shop and find out where the
        fish are biting........the beat goes on........

    • that's what the ammo is for, net of emergency
      cash.

      don't know about 5 years worth, but I figure me & the
      mrs can get by for about 3.5 years -- net of the dry
      ammo, that is.

      *that*'s bearish, man. lotsa time
      to study graham on the couch eating pb & crackers
      breakfast noon & night.

      If it comes to that, that's
      when I'm a gonna buy some stuff, 'cause that's what I
      been saving the ammo for. & if it doesn't, well, maybe
      I'll buy me some of them fancy options Chuck's been
      praising ;-)

      Cheers

      - infernal

    • If I sit tight I've got 5 years covered too.

      I have about 3 cords of firewood split and dried.

      I welcome the opportunity (since I'm not working anyway).

      greg

 
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