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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

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  • bobo21029 bobo21029 Oct 5, 1998 12:01 PM Flag

    Here we go........

    ......essentially you are right of
    course.....after Black Tuesday in '29 the sun still rose in the
    East next morning.....my 90 year old mother tells me
    that most people felt that so what if Wall Street got
    hit........Mainstreet was still open for business..........it was by
    1932 after months of down,down, down until the gloom
    reached full flower............you mentioned folks that
    are overleveraged and that's where I see a chilling
    difference this time..........there's just too much consumer
    installment debt out there.........if unemployment starts
    going up, real problems will arise in the credit
    system..................I do see one shining positive however...........as
    you know, Hoover took a hands off
    approach.....preferring to let the market right itself on it's own. This
    time, with 40% of the public invested, Washington will
    be under terrific pressure to move
    quickly.........which is why I feel it is so urgent to resolve the
    Clinton issue.........so that they can concentrate on the
    economy...........Gonna try to follow your advice and
    relax...........gonna head up to the barber shop and find out where the
    fish are biting........the beat goes on........

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    • <<<<....where I see a chilling
      difference this time..........there's just too much consumer
      installment debt out there.........>>>

      I'm a
      little worried too, but I'm more worried about the US
      debt. Here we have a budget surplus and what does
      congress debate? Whether to give it back to the taxpayers
      or keep it for social security... hello? McFly!
      Anyone home? We are $5,525,136,204,444.24 dollars in
      debt! But that's fine.... when the notes are due, just
      issue some more and you can perpetuate the debt
      forever.... all you have to do is be able to pay the
      interest.....

      But what happens if people stop buying?
      What if they just don't have money to buy?.... like
      when a country goes bankrupt.... Korea, Indonesia,
      etc? These guys are tiny... but what if Japan goes
      bankrupt? Does the IMF have enough money to bail out Japan?


      The way I see it, we're on the edge of something
      big...

    • <<<you mentioned folks that are
      overleveraged and that's where I see a chilling difference this
      time..........there's just too much consumer installment debt out
      there.........if unemployment starts going up, real problems will
      arise in the credit
      system..................>>>

      I agree completely.

      <<<I do see one
      shining positive however...........as you know, Hoover
      took a hands off approach.....preferring to let the
      market right itself on it's own. This time, with 40% of
      the public invested, Washington will be under
      terrific pressure to move quickly.>>>

      I
      think that if shit hits the fan, the Fed will not be
      able to do much.

      I mean, Malaysia and japan etc
      had their own Feds and they were reasonably fiscally
      prudent.

      That did not save their asses.

      Same here...
      Yes, fed works OK to dampen minor shocks... But I
      doubt that they can stave off The Big One... Especially
      if the crisis is international.

      Besides, I
      think that no one has a real clue about how these
      markets work. I mean, they now debate what should have
      been done in Asia. I guess they did not know then. Why
      should I expect that they would know what to do here if
      4 billions of wealth gets wiped out and people
      start defaulting on mortgages etc.

      I also do not
      believe much in the wonders of FDIC etc. Perhaps that's
      just due to my free-floating anxiety, I don't know,
      but I seriously doubt that they could quickly create
      liquidity.

 
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