I am writing a thesis paper on the corrleation
between the success of the Nebraska football program and
BRK's price appreciation. My preliminary findings
indicate that in years that Nebraska has been national
champs or has been rated in the top three in the year
end AP poll, BRK's price appreciation accelerated in
those years and the following year. Years in which Big
Red lost a national championship or finished with two
or greater losses BRK underperformed its historical
growth rate. As we all know Nebraska has lost three
games this year, and if the past is any indication of
the future, expect sub-par performance from BRK for
the remainder of this year and next year.
retirement of John Osbourne very well may have grave
implications for BRK holders going forward. All you BRK
holders better hope that Big Red has a great recruiting
season next year. Has the Nebraska dynasty ended, and
will it signal the demise of BRK. These are the
questions that I will address in my paper.
anyone would like to share their views on this hotly
debated topic, please let me know. Serious inquiries
THE DYNAMIC ONE, a/k/a THE SOURCE
if you don't, our educational system has slipped
far more than I ever dreamed...
you're writing a thesis dealing with Nebraska football,
you might want to get the former coach's name right:
it's Tom Osborne, not "John" Osborne...
way, I've been reading some of the past posts on this
thread to get some insight into whether to put a
sizeable chunk of my portfolio into Berkshire shares, but
have been disappointed to find so much crap to wade
through to get anything of substance (welcome to the
Yahoo board, I guess). I'm interested in any analysis
folks would want to share, as well as an answer to this
question: I thought that the A shares and B shares were
essentially the same (with an obvious price difference), but
I've noticed that their are daily percent price
movements that are different, and am puzzled about it. Why
Imagine when these cash rich Japanese finally
learn about this great man who really cares about his
shareholders and who guards our capital the way some Asian
girls guard their virginity.
My book is expected
to hit the shelves in at least two countries in Asia
before the Annual Meeting of 1999. Hopefully the
Japanese translation will come out within 1999. In that
case, I don't see why BERK can't hit 100,000 before the
end of 1999.
Now, that's why I am saying all
of us old timers should load up rather than buy in
Of course I agree with Warren that the best case
scenario is that BERK price goes up in tandem with the
gains in intrinsic value. But don't forget that these
Asian's family funds are now destroying their economies.
It's a big joke when you talk about money. If you
don't keep your money in the bank but hide it under
your mattress, the stupid bankers won't lend it out in
an indiscriminate fashion which finally causes
Think about Thailand: more than
40% of their banks loans are bad debts
It's time conservative investors from Asia, especially
those who don't want to see their money destroy their
own country's economy, move into
Remember we are not like half of Americans who find
"refuge" in mutual funds. Asians tend to choose their own
companies to invest in, and don't believe in mutual funds.
BERK makes perfect sense to them. Having a traditional
distrust of the mutual fund people's recommendations, we
are very delighted to see a man like Warren who not
only spurn these big-fee bums, but also outperformed
them by a huge margin!
As to why all investors
in America -- except 70,000+ -- don't invest in BERK
but find other stocks, and/or completely trust their
mutual fund managers, I believe a quote from Warren
himself would answer it:
If there is nobody at the
bottom, how can I be at the top.
surprised if the number of Asian BERK owners greatly
outnumber (but not outsize in shares, because of Warren's
and other insiders' holdings) American owners. To
find 100-200,000 Asians to invest in BERK in the next
one or two years? I don't that as a big
Please, Warren, do not then allow Japanese or Chinese
languages be used in the meeting. I am already tired of
that when travelling in the states. I volunteer to be
the spokesperson for the Chinese section of the
shareholders, and I am sure there will in time be another
volunteer from Japan.
As they say, the market will do whatever that's
necessary to prove everybody wrong.
prediction is useless. But, ceteris paribus, if we know
something tangible is coming on stream in a substantial
way, bang! you got the price up due to the increased
demand for the safe stock.
I am talking about
BERK from a very Asian perspective. Almost without
exceptions Asian stocks are lousy vehicles to ride to
riches. Warren was right when he replied to a reporter
who asked why he was not interested in seemingly
underpriced Japanese stocks, you can't get rich by owning
companies with historically low ROE.
seems like Asians have picked up their money-sucking
ability from the Americans currently managing the
Internet stocks or a host of other American rip-off
stories in the stock market.
The way I see it, the
only difference between the American stock market and
the ones in Asia is that, based on decades of facts
and history, you can, ex-ante, make a decision that
will not entail ex-ante regret, whereas in Asia, you
can't. In layman's words, the difference is that you
have one company in the US where you can invest in,
but you can't find one anywhere in Asia.
speaking not only from an Asian's point of view, but also
from a stockbroker and stock analyst's point of view.
In the field of stock-picking and stock analysis,
Warren has no equals. I was a Wharton Scholar from
1991-1993 (check with their annual directory from those
years under the graduate program section).
trying to compile a book in Chinese and have someone
translate that into Japanese, on Warren and BERK. Half of
the book will talk about past BERK stuff (nothing
new) and the more interesting half will talk about the
future, part of these I am sharing on this
I was tremendously touched by Warren when I first
learned about his investment philosophy back in 1987, my
first year in the US. As I am preaching Warren's
philosophy, those who listen are similarly
Imagine when the Taiwanese and the Japanese are touched
and withdraw 10% of their bank deposits to buy BERK.
These two countries are under no restrictions of
I have roughly calculated the
Taiwanese savings. Ten percent of theirs will be equal to
half of BERK.
And don't forget that even if
BERK is trading at 50-60 times earnings (PE), most
Asians will not see it as too high a PE since we are
used to useless counters like Amazon and Yahoo trading
at ridiculously high prices. Truly, most people that
I talked to in Asia do not see a PE of 50-60 high
at all for a company that has returned 24.9% in book
value p.a. every year for the past 33
When the bigger Japanese funds move into BERK, BERK's
traditionally low PE will be history.
It's worth noting
that the Japanese are traditionally patriotic and they
believe one way to show that is to keep their individual
funds in their local banks. But what happened in the
past 8 years really woke them up. Retirees are making
do with a mere 0.25% p.a. on their life savings! (A
$100,000 can earn you only $250 per year!). No wonder then
that there was a huge outflow of individual capital
from Japan during the first half of 1998! My guess is
that without any knowledge of the US stock market,
they are buying into US bonds both for the higher
interest rates and for the capital preservation (US
dollars vs yen which may drop further due to the
worsening Japanese economy).
to be cont'd...
Yes, lots of junk on this board. The problem is,
no one thinks that they post junk. (neither do
price differences: they are small and happen because
trades do not happen at the same time and the stock
trades thinly (only a few shares a day, compared to
intel or microsoft).
You are right, A and B are
equivalent in all meaningful aspects.
<<I am writing a thesis paper on the
corrleation between the success of the Nebraska football
program and BRK's price appreciation.>>
with Asianbuffoon to be sure you're using appropriate
<<The retirement of
John Osbourne very well may have grave implications
for BRK holders going forward.>>
presume you mean Tom Osborne, head coach of Nebraska
football. I worry more about the retirement of W. Buffett
or C. Munger, but I wish the Nebraska football team
Here you go again. Do you understand that
virtually ALL major capital allocation decisions are made
by Buffett? Yes, day to day operations are left to
the managers. From some things I have read, I get the
impression that a small add-on acquisition that would
complement an existing operation may be made with little or
no input from Buffett. But again, these would be
small. But I do believe that Warren Buffett spends
considerable time thinking about what could be done at an
enterprise level with all the various operations. In one way
you may be correct. He may not have spent more than
an hour thinking about geographic expansion plans
for NFM because he has written before about the poor
results of geographically diverse furniture retailing
operations. So he may not be thinking about it because he
knows that no matter what direction he approaches such
a question, the answer will still be no.
you suggest that if this made sense, the Blumkins
would have done it. I can go along with that also. I
think you may be almost but not quite right here.
But having said all of this, why do YOU think that
they should do it. You have agreed that the people,
Buffett, Munger and the Blumkins, who understand this
operation the best have decided not to expand
geographically. So why do you think that THEY should substitute
THEIR judgment for YOURS?
I wasn't sure about the scale either. In Yahoo in the table summary of daily closing prices and volume, 50,000 seems to be the right average daily volume. Then again, maybe Yahoo has it screwed up.
Here's some advice. You can take it or leave it.
You obviously have a lot to say. Why not find a nice
cabin, say in Montana (I hear that Casa Kazinski is
available), and go there and complete your BRK Manifesto.
Then when you have it all organized and thought out
you can present it to the world.
Giving it to
us bit by bit in the venue of this message board
isn't helping anyone out. This stream of consciousness
stuff is hard to figure out and you're beginning to
<<The only reason I can think of that NFM
is not yet doing this is they are waiting for a
recession or depression to do that.>>
the only reason that you can think of? And you claim
to understand Buffett? Look at the way he allocates
capital. Look at Sees Candies, a better operation than
NFM. He has stated that he would love to expand Sees
if they could do so in a way that meets his
standards. You think that Buffett et. al. have not given the
same consideration to the geographic expanision of NFM
and not come up with the same conclusion?
not understand why you go on for ages on the glories
of Warren Buffett and then second quess him all the
time. Especially when your second guessing is silly.