I realize this is a BRKa board and I am seeking
information on BRKb. Am looking for news related to this
stock. I'm losing my shirt. Can't believe that such a
drop should be precipitated alone by KO and G drop.
Others on the board seem to have info that I cannot seem
to find. Any pointers on where to go? Thanks.
Sorry Warren - I thought you knew your stuff but
I have now lost over 20k since May on
At some point you might consider what it is like to
be one of the litle guys who owns this company and
what it feels like to have ones beliefs in BRK
shattered in one huge drop.
Unfortunately, I havent
owned BRK for years on end. I am a younger person who
put all his money on this company. At this point I
see no upside for it. I have lost over 23000 on BRK
since May. I want to believe in BRK but I cant take any
more pain. When earnings are released BRKB will be
worth well under 2000 a share.
Historically, every bear market started end of
July, I think. IS this beginning of bear market? Nobody
can tell. I am basically sticking to short on
internet stocks until september. All influential fund
managers got out of internets, so don't expect any
upgrades. If there is up grade, that is the best chance to
short at the pop.
Look at EXDS for instance,
thier loss is widening every time they report earnings.
But, their stock price is sustained just because they
met street's expectation, and upgrades. They went
from 7 to 120 in a year without promising future
aspects. Web hosting biz has no barriers to entries
whatsoever. EXDS is top of my short list.
neutral in general market sentiment, Monday will be stock
rally. That is the last chance to unload longs. Do the
I think the problem of BRK stock is not Buffett's
decline to invest in tech stcks. If Buffett announces
that he decides to invest in techs, BRK will jump.
But, because of the law of equilibrium, it will go
back to where it was before the
People don't want to get rich in 30-40 years. Everybody
gets a certain performance pressure from friends,
neighbors saying they are doing over 100% annuals. I don't
think BRK's fundamentals have changed from 20 years
ago. Everybody(including money managers) want to hit
big time and retire soon because nobody knows how
long bull market is going to last. Whether we like it
or not, we have to accept this trend.
In the WSJ, "Treasury chief Summers notes that
the economic output of 550 million people in 41 of
the poorest nations is less than the net worth of the
world's three richest people: Microsoft's co-founders,
Bill Gates and Paul Allen, and investor, Warren
Buffett." Just think as the standard of living for those
550 million people improves over the next decade, how
much more Coke and Gillette products will be consumed.
While the current short-term difficulties in KO and G
are given as part of the reason for Berkshire's
slump, the long-term outlook for Buffett's core holdings
remains exceedingly bright.
Cavalier writes: "A character on CNBC was talking
the other day about some of the old namesakes such as
Coke, Gillett, and others in the Berkshire portfolio
and his take on these is that they have done pretty
much all their going to do for several
The questions I ask myself (and maybe you should too)
is will G and KO sell more of their products in the
coming years and will they continue to do so? Are they
dominant players in their industries and will they
continue to be? The answers are still yes!
they continue to do this the market will price them
accordingly. The problem I think is the market has gotten a
little ahead of itself and has priced these stocks to
perfection. Take KO for example. Its average growth for the
past 30 or so years has been what? 12-15% p/a. How can
you justify assigning a p/e of 45-50 on such growth?
Even Buffett has warned that the best companies in the
world will fall on bad years and you should expect this
to happen and PRICE this expectation into your
valuations.By pricing KO and G so highly, the market has not
allowed for any margin of safety (IE: bad years).
I personally believe that many of today's
valuations are just plain ridiculous and am prepared to wait
for more sensible prices, but I don't think there is
anything fundamentally wrong with KO or G. Blame the
market for driving the prices to silly levels. Don't
blame the companies for not living up to these
absolutley unrealistic expectations.
When they correct
(and they will)...buy more and hang on. KO and G are
still two of the best businesses in the world with
excellent prospects which is more than I care to say about
the sharemarket right now. Two of Buffett's best
1)"The price you pay determines your rate
2)"Always factor in a margin of
safety" (In other words don't expect a business to
perform to perfection every single year)
I don't think
the idiots who paid 88 for KO had either of those two
rules in their head.
A character on CNBC was talking the other day
about some of the old namesakes such as Coke, Gillett,
and others in the Berkshire portfolio and his take on
these is that they have done pretty much all their
going to do for several years. I find that my
individual investment in Coke, and Pepsico have pretty much
been bland. Does anyone have a take on what is going
on with these old standbys, and why they don't seem
to have what it takes anymore to move in the market
like they did for years? I know the internet stocks
have seemed to take the limelight lately, but if they
should loose some of their luster should we expect a
turnaround in the old standbys of yesterday? Any thoughts. A
berkshire-b shareholder. Best of luck!
<<I will send him a Dairy Queen Big Wheel
certificate with the letter of thanks on Monday. I wonder if
he will reply? >>
I receive thousands
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