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Dendreon Corporation Message Board

  • sol_s_99 sol_s_99 Feb 25, 2003 12:51 PM Flag

    Deal won't happen as is...

    CVAS shareholders will vote down deal at these prices. 84% premium to a 30% premium in one day ain't gonna make it. Especially because it's for stock. There has to be some sort of guaranteed premium for this to fly.

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    • <<But apparently they don't intend to fund the continuation of that trial with DNDN/CVAS funds. Also would not surprise me to see some reduction in overhead due to duplication. >>

      I agree. Once the merger is done, they can cut spending on CVAS programs.

    • Vikingship, you say "CVAS is also burning cash at close to $2 million per month". I assume you derived that from the 10Q for the September 2002 quarter, which shows a loss of about $6.5 million. But if you back out the "restructuring charge" of about $2 million, and depreciation and amortization, the loss is substantially less - those items are not recurring and/or are non-cash. Further, per Biotech monthly, I would expect the R&D expense (which is about $4 million) to go way down, as the plan is to examine the results from the current phase II trial (which is already paid for) and partner it is successful. But apparently they don't intend to fund the continuation of that trial with DNDN/CVAS funds. Also would not surprise me to see some reduction in overhead due to duplication.

    • my post was in responce to a previous post, suggusting poor data on the dndn prostate trail.
      my point is this, if, and i emphasize if, this drug has a very poor chance of approval, than cvas just gave the store away- 50 or 100 million,who cares...
      it's still a lot of money for a drug- as was previously posted- that has a near zero chance of approval- i have to believe cvas did a little
      home work before they gave the farm away

    • << if i follow your thinking, cvas just gave dndn 100 million bucks for a pile of worthless stock>>>

      Not quite by a factor of 2. Current(2/03) cash and equivalent at CVAS is about $63 million, and debt is $14 million, leaving just under $50 million cash. CVAS is also burning cash at close to $2 million per month.

    • if i follow your thinking, cvas just gave dndn 100 million bucks for a pile of worthless stock and a drug that, according to you has virtually no hope of approval. what a deal... vapor for 100 million bucks. now thats a great deal for dndn. those guys at cvas must be idiots...

    • I'm confused by your objection.

      The fact Provenge works (p=.001) on Gleason < 8 is not a retrospective analysis of the manufactured, narrowly-defined, logically suspect sort we see all too often in the oncology area. This is a clearly-defined, widely adopted measurement that has been in use in the field for a number of years. The defined sub-group covers fully 75% of all HRPC cancer patients.

      This was a prospectively-defined sub-group for purposes of statistical analysis, but not prospectively-defined for purposes of proving efficacy. While this makes Provenge's clear efficacy unapprovable under current FDA rules, a reasonable person cannot claim Dendreon went on a fishing expedition to find some hint of efficacy. 75% population penetration in a clearly-defined, clearly-understood subgroup is not a "hint" in my book nor in the book of urologist/oncologists.

      We already know there will need to be a confirmatory study, that's what 9902b is all about. Most of us have known that since the moment the results were announced (or shortly thereafter, anyway).

      This was a prospectively-defined sub-group for purposes of statistical analysis, but not prospectively-defined for purposes of proving efficacy. While this makes Provenge's clear efficacy unapprovable under current FDA rules, a reasonable person cannot claim Dendreon went on a fishing expedition to find some hint of efficacy. 75% population penetration in a clearly-defined, clearly-understood subgroup is not a "hint" in my book nor in the book of urologist/oncologists.

      We don't need an OVERALL positive finding because the initial Provenge label will be for below-8 patients. It clearly works on FDA-approvable benchmarks (TTDP combined with a confirmatory result such as pain onset is approvable).

      The data show Provenge works in the defined population for the 9902b study. Even with around 70 people on drug, the p=.001. That means there is a 99.9% likelihood that Provenge was responsible for the treatment effect.

      I like those odds going into the 9902b trial. If you don't, feel free to bet the other direction as a 9902b failure will send this stock to $1, which would be a fine 4-bagger on the short side.

    • Look, this is all in the Gleason <7 subset. Until confirmed prospectively, and I'll say it only one last time - historically the success rate is low on this sort of re-study when a "subset" is identified. Most significant, the question is whether the "cut" at 7 is arbitrary, and fell out of a multivariate analysis (i.e data dredging for the cut that gives the best result), or if there is some valid significance to the cut. Because of this, doing post-hoc analyses is fraught with peril beyond the "gambling" investing these companies may represent.

      Again take a look at what MAXM tried to do when they were proclaiming efficacy based on subset analyses. This issue is well recognized among stat types, so I won't belabor it, especially if everyone wants to continue to fantasize. We'll just wait and see.

    • my info tells me a few hedge funds are selling all they can of dndn to keep it down.. probably up to close to one million shares short now.. this shows you what pricks shorts are in general betting against a cure for cancer for men..the devil loves those types.. they would kill their mother for a buck...thats o.k. because i know more than they know about the science.. their happened to be a generic company i owned once that was bought out at 19.. I started buying at two bucks....time is on my side...

    • <EOM>

    • ivesting in yet to be fda approved drugs is a big gamble, that said the dec. 11 press release in my veiw talks of significatant
      p-value of 0.002 and a treatment effect of 78%
      ...and after 6 months the randomization had a greater than 8-fold advantagle in progression
      -free survival ---34.7% verse 4 % of placebo.
      I think for dead men walking there is clear
      benifit here, as there is no therapy for this group. patients with gleason scale above 8 did not benefit

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