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Dendreon Corp. Message Board

  • rscooter81 rscooter81 Mar 26, 2007 2:13 AM Flag

    Happy Gambling

    Assume, for arguments sake, that odds on the FDA decision are 50/50. I know it's zero hour for some of you, but try your best.

    Suppose I offered you the following proposition:
    You give me $5 and I give you a coin flip.
    Heads - I hand you $25.
    Tails - I keep the $5.

    Sure, you probably have more money on the line than that, but the percentages are the same(in the case of a few people, judging by your hysterical posts, A LOT more!). When it comes down to brass tacks, the FDA only has two choices. If, based on what the public knows, it was even remotely clear what that choice would be, the stock would have already moved. Yeah, yeah...I know it was up 13% Friday. But you're not listening to me: Heads means $25 Tails means $0

    Why argue for the next 72 hours over what the FDA will do? This trade is a straight gamble, and should be approached as such.

    So, would you take the bet?

    Acceptable responses are "heads" or "tails". Any additional comments on trade implementation are also welcome (spreads, etc) - but nothing else.

    Disclosure: I don't have a position in DNDN. If the conditions are right tomorrow, I will be placing a couple hundred dollars on Heads (i.e. buying some April OTM calls with money I have no problem losing).

    Happy gambling!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Bet $5000.00 on Heads...

      disclaimer , if it comes up tails I'm hoping i'll lose under 2500..short term and will let the rest wither on the vine..

    • "Suppose I offered you the following proposition:
      You give me $5 and I give you a coin flip.
      Heads - I hand you $25.
      Tails - I keep the $5.

      Why argue for the next 72 hours over what the FDA will do? This trade is a straight gamble, and should be approached as such.

      So, would you take the bet?"

      Unless somebody put a 2 tailed coin in play, I will bet you about 25% of my speculative cash.

      The only real questions are:

      A) How much to bet? This is a difficult question, but I believe the correct answer is a significant portion of your speculative cash. though people always adivse caution in cases such as these, it is just as bad in the long run to underplay.

      B) If you are REALLY certain of that reality follows the 2 branches listed, you can do best with straight call options. Long common plus long puts may work, but seams a little less solid. Long common plus selling calls to hedge is a loser play.

      But I am too busy to work this stuff out, so just spent my available liquidity on common and calls.

      Happy trading.

      • 1 Reply to fib1_1_2_3_5
      • Do you really "lose" 5$ here? Or do you just lose use of it for another two years and then get to play again? that's the part I don't understand about this stock-the fact that from what I have read-it is extremely unlikely that this drug will be rejected flat out. So even if you have to put 5K on ice for another year or two-their is a good chance of doubling,tripling, quadrupling your money after that time. I think it might be a good bet.

 
DNDN
1.360.00(0.00%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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