Brean Murray Speaks
Dendreon upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray; tgt $35 (11.81 )Brean Murray upgrades DNDN to Buy from Hold and sets target price at $35 given how yesterday's Phase 3 IMPACT trial data fully delivered on what was promised in Dendreon's conference call two weeks ago. The firm believes that the p-values and confidence intervals, although close to being borderline, support approval because there appears to be no other way to explain the clear survival difference. Even the most worrisome adverse effect from the earlier pooled trial results (cerebrovascular accident -- CVA) was perfectly balanced in the IMPACT trial. The firm says perhaps the biggest remaining pushback against Provenge is the reimbursement price given the current administration in power, but when one considers the cost of taxotere plus its required supportive care drugs, a Provenge price tag of about $80,000 would be at parity, be more effective, and be less toxic.
I am a DNDN long, but seriously, are you guys believers of Brean Murray? Continually setting a $1 price target and maintaining a sell rating?
Please, after yesterday's raping by these wall street types, follow your own knowledge and understanding of what Dendreon and Provenge means.
The significance of Provenge will pay off in time. Don't follow these "Price Target" since they will seem small in the years to come.
The fact that Brean Murray didn't address manufacturing challenges demonstrates how stupid they are. Reimbursement is the last issue they'll have to deal with. The next issue is working out how to scale up and manufacture. They'll need consistent and good results before the FDA will ever approve. I can promise you it's the next huge challenge DNDN faces. The stock should stay strong for a while but there will be a put opportunity down the road because the FDA will not be satisfied easily. They never are and this is first-in-class so they have to set the bar now.
Hmmm, $80,000 to live 4 months more of a miserable and suffering life. My grandpa died from prostate cancer, and I was with him during his decline, and it was the saddest thing I'd ever seen. I don't know why anyone would spend $20,000 a month to live in excruciating pain.
$80,000X50,000 patients (initial market)=$4 bil in US alone.
$4 bil in sales=at least $20 bil stock (not even considering ROW, Neuvenge, platform, etc.)
$20 bil is $200/share, so you can essentially buy $200 stock for $25 today.