I heard about DNDN in MBA school from a friend who works in the Pharmy Industry. This was 2 yrs ago. I didn't buy into it........OUCH! :(
Congrats to those who did a few yrs ago + a FEW MTHS AGO!!! 1000+% return in 30-40 days...thats just insane...again congrats.
However, anything that runs up a 1000% in 30 days WILL PULL BACK due to profit taking.
I'm playing the put options for May/June 09. This will definitely fall under $20 next week....BELIEVE ME!!! I've see this too many times.
ALSO, whenever you see reports of a potential BUYOUT.........(I see a ton of reports on this)....most likely IT WILL NOT HAPPEN or it takes YEARS before you see M&A activity. Usually when you hear about a buyout....its ALREADY HAPPENED and its TOO LATE.
Bottomline...buyout rumors NEVER HAPPEN!!!!
Other reasons why this will pull back next week.....
** DNDN doesn't have any products for sale now.....(NO REVENUE STREAM TO PREDICT FUTURE EARNINGS)
** PROV only extends life by 4months (based upon last weeks results)...I know its a big deal but is it really?
** NO FDA APPROVAL as of today
** DNDN hit $27.00 this week with upgrades, buyout rumors, extension of life news, etc etc....and it's already back to $21.50 as of yesterday (AH). Remember DNDN was $2.50 2 months ago!!!
Come Monday....if DNDN opens lower then $21.50 ..... it's a matter of days before it breaks $20 and we'll see it back in the low to mid teens!
Good luck to all whether you play it UP or DOWN.
Have a great weekend.
(ps...no bashing or stupid comments...use factual information or long term experience with trading stock on a regular basis)
The only you need to correct is your price drop target.DNDN will be back in the single digits next week. Once the Insiders dump. it's the top. then they issue a secondary offering and screw the longs just like 2007.
"** DNDN doesn't have any products for sale now.....(NO REVENUE STREAM TO PREDICT FUTURE EARNINGS)
** PROV only extends life by 4months (based upon last weeks results)...I know its a big deal but is it really?"
Reveals that you are not aware of the issues at stake, and this rhetorical question is a weak attempt to cast doubt.
If you or your loved one happened to be a poor victim of advance prostate cancer and your doc asks you if you want to shell out 60K for treatment with provenge, with a survival of 31.7% for three years and very little side effects, against say taxotere with a survival of 17.9% with horrible side effects or no treatment, what would you choose? I'd pay the 60K and take provenge, whether its with insurance coverage or my own cash. What's 60K compared to living life?
Now, with prostate cancer being a common killer (no.2 non skin cancer for men in the USA), this is a big deal.
Precisely because FDA approval has yet to come(in time it will) and that this is DNDN's first product, that is why the impact on PPS will be significant. Its the same reason for buying before the P3 results were out in april, at the PPS of $3ish. If you wait till after the fact, obviously you cannot profit from it.
While you may want to trade this guy with the usual TA (pull back after 100% run up), TA wouldnt have predicted the 1000% run up in the first place and I wouldn't bank on it. THe stock price here is event drive and some would say vulnerable to manipulation as well.
So while the pps may drift lower, how low would it go? Once other institutions finish studying the data and are convinced provenge is for real, they would begin to accumulate as well. On any catalyst (not even a buyout, CEO already said DNDN isnt for sale and would pursue distribution in the USA for itself) such as EU partnership, or more funds investing, the pps will go up.
A better strategy would be to buy on any weakness, as opposed to shorting it or buying puts.
I play option also in one of my accounts. I have many shares long that I will not sell but also trade the shares. There is one problem that I see with your logic and that is that the downside risk in the price of the stock is small, so unless you bought those options for 20 cents or less than your chance of making good money on them is small you probably would be better off just shorting the stock, but I know that takes more money. I am afraid that it is not going to retrace that much more for you. You asked for factual information. Well I am afraid it is all out there for us all to read. You gave nothing more than say you have seen this many times and with my with my experience trading stock. You did not give us any reason to actually take you for any good information. I have kept a low profile on this board but unless you are cellular immunotherapy expert than you should not make it sound like you opinions are fact just because to you think they are.
Does anyone here know what a Capitalist is?! It's someone or a purposely organized group of people that do everything and anything in their power to eventually take advantage of a mass.
Duh! Our government has been doing it for hundreds of years., contrary to public opinion. It's human nature as well. Manipulate, divide, conquer. How do you think all those billionaires are made on the Forbes list, that are tied to hedge funds? By buying and holding? Not! As educated as most of them are, they couldn't do it either. But when you can put a few billion dollars together and manipulate a stock, compensate a board, pay the media contacts, you can make huge returns in a short order. And off of who? Bag holders, believers in the promotion. Ah, the promotion. Everything in our society is just that. Think about. Just turn on the tv, radio, look at the billboards. And for what. For a few at the top to rake in the cash.
LOL I read your 'advice' and had to chuckle.
First your claim years of experience trading stocks and yet recommend 'options' why is that?
If you had vast experience why did you not short earlier?
I have a vastly different experience in trading BIO's then you. I have also seen the initial 'pop' then a 2 to 3days of pounding down then when the bottom is exhausted the stock moves up and through the previous high .
I would never pretend to offer direct advice with out disclaimer of do your own DD. As for the stock price on a specific day anything can happen as we saw on Tuesday and Wednesday.
As for DNDN, i am to the long side on it.
As your comment 'its' only 4 months' obviously you don't deal with medical research and statistics much to understand what the relevance/importance of the study was.
Is this factual enough....From Dendreon's website....Please notice the 2nd and 3rd bullet that you conveniently left out.
The answer is YES...it is a big deal.
CHICAGO and SEATTLE, April 28, 2009 - Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) today announced that its pivotal Phase 3 IMPACT study of PROVENGE® (sipuleucel-T) in men with advanced prostate cancer met its primary endpoint of significantly improving overall survival compared to placebo. The data were presented at the American Urological Association (AUA) Annual Meeting.
The intent-to-treat analysis demonstrated that:
* PROVENGE extended median survival by 4.1 months compared to placebo (25.8 months versus 21.7 months);
* PROVENGE improved 3-year survival by 38% compared to placebo (31.7% versus 23.0%);
* The IMPACT study achieved a p-value of 0.032, successfully exceeding the pre-specified level of statistical significance defined by the study's design (p-value less than 0.043), and PROVENGE reduced the risk of death by 22.5% compared to placebo (HR=0.775);
Finally ... something with factual information.
Yes, I read that with other news of "BUYOUT" candidate.....upgrade stock price to $30ish....etc etc.
I'll definitely join the LONG side once DNDN pulls back into the teens for reasons already posted.
Watch my $20 Put Options next week ;)
and Good Luck to all