RoW? Already been described as a sure thing by management.
FDA approval? Already been described as a sure thing by management.
Ramping up for production by building factories? Already way over promoted.
Buyout above $26? Ain't going to happen. I'll shave my head and get a DNDN tattoo if this happens.
Tell me sirs and madams, what is going to move the stock above $26?
The only thing I can see moving this stock over $26 is earnings and profits and that's a long way of even if this gets approval. If this stock gets approval that doesn't mean it's going to be commonly purchased.
So, what's going to be the catalyst to drive this over $26?
If everything goes exactly as planned, so what, everyone expects that because management has basically guaranteed it already.
I'm assuming most of you aren't in this for the long term or you would not be on the message boards daily. I know because I have held stocks that I intended to hold for years and I didn't even check the stock price but about once a month much less read the trash on message boards, so this is how I know you are all looking for a quick buck.
Okay, I get it. You bought with plans to sell when the drug gets approved by the FDA (If it does). Do you realize how many people are going to want to sell for a profit on that day, not to mention all the shorts that are going to want to pile on thinking that this drug will never make money or be accepted by the medical community? Who is going to be your buyers when you want to sell? Why will anyone buy at that point? What would there be to look forward to?
This is just my theory on how buy the rumor sell the news works after seeing it happen over and over for the last 25 years.
What if things don't go as planned?
If you have a different opinion and can express it intelligently, I am going to read it and consider it.
OR......................, you hype the crap out of the short side, get some more gamblers that follow you and then force the price unbelievably high due to short covering WHEN FORCED margin calls come due to real news that you still will not believe.
You can disagree, but there are some shorts that rode this up in horror from 6 to 26.
Most likely the answer lies somewhere between your fear that you are trying to create for longs and the "perfect storm" of a stock SQUEEZE that will BK you shorts that BET against a cancer stock. When you play with fire you might just get toasted - to a crisp
I am not trying to create any fear. I am doing due diligence and an open discussion. I have said all along maybe this gets FDA approval and maybe it can go up. I don't care to put any fear in anyone, but I'm a seasoned investor and I do know that people should not risk more than they can lose and it's foolish not to take some profit off the table.
Buyout at $26? What idiot would let them sell so low? Apparently YOU. They don't have to tender an offer at such a small premium, they could just start buying shares on the open market and put a floor in at $22 or something.
No, sadly, nobody wants to buy DNDN. Call the big guys and ask, they will say they have no interest in such a risky play. So that leaves the risk to us. We take it, and if they can make drugs, then we make lots of money. If they are a 1-trick pony, managed by morons, well, then shame on us. This one is up to the individual investor, nobody else is buying them.
They are far more than a one trick pony ... when Nuvenge makes it's way through the process they will be a MAJOR player in the sector. By then they can grow through PROVENGE profit and buy out other companies to expand .
26.00 would not even be offered to them , the players KNOW how much it's worth and hopefully ALL buyout offers will be REJECTED
I have just returned from a Minnesota fishing trip. So I will give a quick answer to your 26.00 ceiling for DNDN.
I know that this is not the answer you want to read, nor will it appeal to the pumpers on this board.
DNDN has breached 27.00 twice in the trading sessions after the trading was resumed after the test result were released in April. DNDN did not close above 27,however it traded there. Any substantial announcement pertaining to a partner,buyout or FDA approval will simply give another clue to the timing of a product launch. We are now in a holding pattern of impatience and frustration, you have based your 26.00 target on a market that is still waiting for the same answers as you or the rest of the world.Reality tells us that we are over 6 months away from FDA approval.
I feel that you estimate may be about 40% too low if positive news is released.~md
Mdon, don't waste your keystrokes on Goo Goo Cluster. He's simply bashing for the sake of bashing and trying to disguise himself as being analytical. Read his other posts if you have time to waste and you will see his true colors.
Were the fish biting in Minny? As a little kid, I enjoyed every fishing trip with my uncle on summer trips from KC to Minneapolis. I seem to recall a Lake Annandale, if that spelling is even close.
you are funny - you were here when it was 3.75 2 1/2 years ago and it went to 20 then you (and the rest of the professional shorts) took it back down to the sub 3's prior to the april data announcement and you got your heads handed to you again - 27+. keep it up -- when they sell out at 50+ you will get wacked again -- give it up.
red flag...on the new FDA site for access to investigational medications in trial nothing listed for DNDN...they do list MDX010 by Medarex but note it is not available at this time...I think the FDA has just a bunch of losers on the list but I was thinking for sure Provenge would be on it.
My opinions are very different from yours.....
First MS has been retained to help find a ROW partner at a premium and probably to evaluate a buyout.
These events will move the stock...which hasn't moved because in reality nothing major has happened, I think low $20's is where it belongs until an actual event occurs.
1) FDA approval which make it viable for a buyout, a move to actual production and a true valuation. This moves the stock by $10 to $15.
2) ROW partnership which could happen before or after #1 will move the stock $8 to $10.
3) Most likely after approval, a buyout is signed with a BIG DRUG company for US and ROW sales. That would eliminate the ROW partnership move but add $30 to $40 a share.
In summary stock is $23, approval takes it to $32, buyout takes it to $70. This will happen within 9 months. So depending upon what you call short and long term, there you have my opinion. If you're in for a $30 jump within a week, it's all luck if you are in until the buyout happens, you're wait is 6 to 9 months. I don't believe DNDN will remain as an independent company for the long term. The treatment will be approved by Medicare and other drug companies, there are current treatments that are just as costly that are less effective approved for payment today.
Wew31952, you continue to make sensible, knowledgable posts. I know you believe any buyout offer would come after, not before, FDA approval, which makes sense. So how would JP Morgan advise DNDN regarding a ROW partner -- continue talks but hold off until FDA approval? What about DNDN's fiduciary responsibility to shareholders in the event any legitimate ROW offer is on the table?
By the way, I retraced your buyout figures from earlier posts and found $80, $75, and now $70. Are you getting more conservative? I think if you are correct about approval taking the pps to $32, there would NOT be a more than 100-percent premium in a buyout. I think in that scenario, $32 jumps to a $60 buyout, max, probably in the $50s but not likely $70. One other question: If ROW occurs before FDA approval, would you sell the spike toward $30 and figure the pps will settle back before the FDA finally acts? I notice you were smart enough to sell at $24.75, figuring there was plenty of time to re-enter.
As always, thanks for your intelligent input.
Actually investors apparently don't think it will go as planned. Several analytical studies have been done, by people whose job it is to do those, valuing the company much higher if things go as planned. The company share price reflects an uncertainty discount. In other words, investors believe the numbers being tossed around are too good to be true and/or believe the FDA approval, reimbursement issues, pricing etc. add up to too much uncertainty. Accordingly they are using a higher implied discount rate (whether they know it or not) on expected cash flows (or lower cash flows) than those that argue for higher prices.
"Okay, I get it. You bought with plans to sell when the drug gets approved by the FDA (If it does). Do you realize how many people are going to want to sell for a profit on that day, not to mention all the shorts that are going to want to pile on thinking that this drug will never make money or be accepted by the medical community? Who is going to be your buyers when you want to sell? Why will anyone buy at that point? What would there be to look forward to?"
My Lord, just come out and say you're short instead of infesting the board with your bullshit.
Several things in near term .... ROW partner ... BLA submitted .... end point data realease .... posible takeover attempt (which should be REJECTED) ... After that Approval for PROVENGE and updates on NUVENGE and the rest of the pipeline
"...drug will never make money or be accepted by the medical community..."
I disagree with your assumptions of low adoption rates by recipients/providers...
If you were given the option of PLAN A / PLAN B... both with roughly equal eventualities (i.e., you die)...
PLAN A consists of injections leading to flu symptoms (two events)... PLAN B consists of injections leading to a living hell for 2-4 weeks... after which you feel like you have been beaten all over your body for another month or two... and then you find out that you may have to do it again.
PLAN A is obvious... all outcomes equal.