I think a buyout is almost certain.
This is such a unique technology, that might apply to many other cancers, or afflictions that attack a weak immune system (HIV?), big pharmas simply can't ignore it. Or let it develop on its own to compete with them.
They will have to pay, and pay big.
Gold will not sell cheap, but he will insist on being a wholly owned subsidiary of some pharma, with him running it with a very lucrative pay package.
I know there is a poison pill. All the more reason Gold will get what he wants, and shareholders will be greatly rewarded.
I see a deal where we get $65-$95 a share, PLUS a share of the buying company. Total value about $110-$125. You get lots of cash, and you still get to participate in the growth of DNDN within a big pharma.
Going it alone would be worth more to DNDN shareholders in the long run, but I really doubt big pharma will let that happen. They will pay big now to insure it doesn't.
The bullish analysts on this stock come up with $65 share prices by imagining 2014 sales for DNDN, a 30x multiple on presumed earnings and an unrealisticlly low discount rate to present value it to today's dollars. Problem is, all of the large pharmas trade at much lower earnings multiples (for example, PFE trades around 14x). DNDN's earnings could not meaningfully alter the earnings multiple of a much larger acquirer, so if an acquirer were to pay, say, $8.5 billion for DNDN ($65/share), it would immediately lower their market cap by around $5 billion dollars. There is no executive at a large pharma dumb enough to bring that idea to the board. But, keep dreaming...
Gold predicted the turmoil today back on April 29th when he sold his DNDN options;
And Gold also decided to keep 224K worth of DNDN shares so it would lose value today too.
Buh Bye; Ignored!
Given the shape our overall cash-rich big pharma industry is in and heading towards (expiring patents on blockbuster drugs, weak pipelines, poor R&D drug results, FDA scrutiny on drug approvals (average only about 25/yr), a friendly or hostile takeover of DNDN is highly probable.
Will it happen between now and the annual share meeting on June 2nd?
TIME will tell...If no, it may happen next year right b4 the June annual shareholder meeting (2011) when our 3 facilities become fully operational and begin producing blockbuster revenue!
This is NOT a unique technology. Dendritic-cell based vaccines/immunotherapy and ex-vivo immune stimulation has been going on for over a decade!! It has failed in majority of solid tumours in the basic laboratories of many universities. It is definitely *remarkable* that it did work in "prostate" cancer and Kudos to DNDN for sticking with it but it is not a such a "unique" technology platform that pharmas would see the need to pay in excess of 7 bil dollars to get their hands on.
The honeymoon period for DNDN is over. It's put up or shut up time now. They have to show solid sales in the next quarter (or at least trend towards it) becuase if their sales fall short of expectations, they will get crucified.
I believe (and I am sure will be fully flamed for it) that DNDN will be a good short at least for the next 3 months becuase there will be a lot of uncertaintity about their sales.
You might try and explain that to SNY who now sells Taxotere for the very same market.
Unfortunately for SNY, Taxotere has extremely serious side effects to the extent that fully HALF the potential candidates choose NOT to take the drug, just because of the side effects. They essentially choose to die in peace (and for the most part, soon).
And Taxotere still does $3 Billion a year in sales for SNY.
Or they did until Provenge came on the market with virtually no side effects.
DNDN will now steal nearly all the taxotere business (over time) while they also attract most of the other half of patients who chose nothing rather than suffer the dibilitating side effects of Taxotere chemo.
Then there is the issue of other prostate cancer patients who aren't considered part of the market as far as the FDA is concerned, but are actually earlier stage PC patients. They will also want Provenge, not wanting to wait until they are on their last leg to try it.
Then of course there is also the ROW market as well, that will raise very substantial revenue for DNDN once that ROW deal is announced.
It will probably be many years before DNDN can serve the demand that the current markets will create for their Provenge.
Then what if the technology also works on other cancers? That is being explored and could add substantially to the value of the company.
I'm sorry but you are way off base. There is exceptional value in this particular company and its technology.
If it has failed every time for over a decade, why is the only one that didn't "not unique"?
Is that not the definition of unique.
If you sell something unique, does that not bring a higher price-especially with the official seal and halogram we were just issued showing that it is genuine. Just some food for thought.
my take is that Dr. Gold had a plan to sell shares after approval to take some profits for his family period. He likely had this plan for years. He has been at this for years and wants the security and the financial flexibility to buy whatever he desires. With that said, he realizes that he will continue to receive major amounts of more stock and stock options going forward. DNDN is poised to become a biotech giant and if any large pharma wants it, they must pay full value plus to own her. Dr. Gold has brought DNDN to this point and will complete the task of making DNDN a complete success. If that includes a buyout at $120 a share, that is fine with me. Like before, be patient, the price will climb much higher.
BUT a buyout is still a huge possibility this year. An offer could come on short notice...from a prospective suitor that Gold is unaware of right now. If I were big pharma, I would wait to see the demand (and actual sales) AND to gauge Dendreon's execution in light of the logistics involved, first. If it looks good, I would then make an offer.
Bottom line: Dendreon's product is a rarity in that sales will be huge---$Billions HUGE.
"That" kind of sales will actually have an impact on the top and bottom lines of big pharma. They will not ignore it. No way. No how.
Exactly, J Devine, Gold has telegraphed the immediate future. Gold knows all of the feelers and half-baked offers that have come Dendreon's way for the last 12 months, so now he must KNOW he will get his wish to keep Dendreon solo. I have always thought a buyout was the best strategy for the shareholders and for the pipeline development (i.e. saving more lives, sooner), but if Big Pharma doesn't want to write the check for $80 pps, DNDN will be forced to take the slow and steady route.