you cannot know peoples positions or trades from what is written on a MB (especially this MB)Very few posts are even worth reading.I give no credibility to any post on this or any MB without checking data myself.
You're right about the humility (both ways), but I look at it this way: Without knowing people's positions and trades, how are we to assign any credibility to them? And this includes admitting bad trades (I lost $12,500 on CVM last year and am waaay underwater on GNVC but ahead of the game on a half-dozen others.) Look, I held 2K of my 12K shares of DNDN when we sat briefly in the 50s, so you could say I lost $50,000 by not unloading those, too, and waiting for the pullback. I think talking specifics helps others weigh their options. Some people are long-term investors and just don't want to tinker with any shares, and that is all well and good. Others are swing traders, and with a stock as volatile as DNDN, swing trading is very profitable.
For weeks, I said we would be filling a gap at 37.15, and last week a TA disciple called me out and said the gap was "insignificant". Lo! and Behold, today we fill that gap (literally flying up to 37.24) before dropping back near 36. I would have traded the gap fill but I was out volunteering for the local library fundraiser and missed it. Had a swing trader done so, DNDN could pull back to 35.50 tomorrow, for a tidy $1.50 swing and $7,500 profit on 5K shares. (Even if we immediately go back to 37, you simply get back in with no harm done.) Sharing that information on the board, even if it's just one man's opinion, might be useful to someone.
There is a very good chance I will sell the news Aug. 3 but with every intention of getting back in. I just see a different (read: choppy) price action based on 2010 revenues and market forces, and capitalizing on it can mean profitable trading. GLTA.
Never mind TA, there is only ONE event that takes this above 42.50 and that's a buyout offer or substantial rumor of a buyout. If we are left with the slow but steady rollout to full capacity in New Jersey and opening the Georgia and California facilities (in other words, Gold's go-it-alone approach), the pps will be range-bound, perhaps in high-30s to low-40s, for all of 2011. No moonshot. JMHO.
You think we're gonna have all the plants firing on all cylinders for 2 quarters and trade between $30-$40 while this is happening?
It looks like we're gonna break out of your range on 3M-6M in revs for this Q. The last 2 quarters of 2011 could EASILY be 200M+ Qs.