Dendreon (DNDN): Market crash or not, Dendreon was primed to tank anyway when news of revised guidance for 2011 hit the wires last week. The original sales guidance of $350-$400 million was canned when the high price of Provenge treatment - which can largely be attributed to logistics and manufacturing costs - cut into the willingness of doctors to prescribe the treatment.
The haircut tore into the DNDN share price, which closed Monday under $10.50, with a total market cap of 1.5 billion. When it was all said and done - and there's no guarantee that it is - Dendreon took a haircut by 2/3.
Unless you think that the plunge was unwarranted and that Provenge sales are eventually going to kick it into high gear, as many predicted.
In terms of catalysts, everything had been going right.
The FDA was approving new manufacturing facilities for Provenge and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) decided to provide full reimbursement for the Provenge treatment. It was looking like Dendreon's "Golden Age" would go off without a hitch.
Today, however, with the stock right around ten dollars, is it likely that DNDN is done, or does it have a good chance of recovery?
In my opinion, barring any monumental setbacks, this one has about as good a chance as you can have at bouncing back. The current prices that resulted from both the market crash and revised guidance look to be a bit overdone, and with patient demand continuing for Provenge treatment, it's also likely that sales will grow along with manufacturing capability over the next few quarters.
In the meantime, the vultures come out of the woodworks in these situations. The law firms are already issuing press releases looking for a class action lawsuit, which I think is weak every time. The market is risky enough as it is, so your stock goes down and you cry class action?
It's a pretty good bet, in my opinion, that Dendreon is going to come out of this just fine. In fact, I think it's a pretty good buy right now. Don't forget, Provenge is still the grand daddy of cancer immunotherapy right now.