Provenge is administered over a 5 week period, so the jump from Feb to March revenues is extraordinary. The March revenue was $34.5M.
Here's how monthly break out with working days:
April has the Easter Holiday. So, I predict
If COGS are down a bit, this will be the first "breakeven quarter".
Add some good news about European approval and Neuvenge and this manipulated POS will finally soar.
I've also been trying to track down the $34.5M number. Indeed, all I can find in the earnings call and QA is that Jan was weak owing to the holidays (and business that they felt was "pulled forward" into 4Q11. They claimed that March was "very high" as the days fell perfectly on the calendar.
But, as nearly as I can tell, it might well be that these "clues" have led to often quoted breakdowns by month, rather than there being hard numbers.
The "average run rate" would be 27.7M.
The conference call did make it sound like Jan and Feb have revenues that were at the average of Q4 (25.7M) or a bit less. That would put best guess for March at ~$34M.
It could be how that $34.5M number got made up. Absent any better data, it seems ever so slightly high to me from the earnings call clues.
I am LONG and have been since before the approval.
I've not a share, so it's obvious that I'm WAY DOWN in DNDN.
I am hoping for some good revenue numbers for the 2nd quarter.
I would love to see your projections be accurate.
I think a 39% increase over the 1st quarter is too optimistic.
I hope I am wrong and you are correct.
COGs will be up a bit due to repurchase of inventory raw materials. listen to the earnings call. COGs don't change until there is significantly more patients being treated AND label automation can allow them to cut human labor -OR- they decide to shutdown a plant.
I note that you haven't accounted for any slowdown in June revenues due to conference attendance as was suggested in the earnings call.
you are predicting $121M gross revenues for Q2, which is so far ahead of the $87M gross revenues in Q1. why would you think 40% growth is likely when CEO can see both April revs and May bookings and gives a "low single digit" growth guidance?
finally, for you to predict "If COGS are down a bit, this will be the first breakeven quarter" shows that you may need to better understand how the financials work. there is ZERO chance of a breakeven event until 2013 when label automation is fully implemented and effective.
be realistic, this is a steady but slow growth curve for the next several quarters.
There is none.
Follow all the threads back, and you wind up with some poster on I-Village who claimed it from a bogus calculation.
First, he switched into using gross, not net numbers. In this business net refers to the sales numbers after applying the rebates and such. It is the "real" number. Gross means nothing.
Second, he just pulled the ramp-up rate out of thin air.