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Dendreon Corporation Message Board

  • goldes2 goldes2 Feb 8, 2013 8:25 PM Flag

    Posted from Investor Village: Bass and D Parker - What do you think?

    Bass and D Parker - what do you think about this investor village post? Very intense, but the post does have some history here. Links deleted to allow posting here.

    ***Twenty Five Reasons To Know What You Own In DNDN!

    Thought I'd revise my initial write-up a bit. thanks to everyone who recommended my initial post: Enjoy and much success to everyone here on IV!
    1. You own a biotech company that owns the first ever, patented, Antigen Delivery Cassette Technology that can develop novel personalized immunotherapy cancer vaccines for various disease; among an industry of toxic chemo killers.
    2. You own a company that has developed the FIRST EVER, FDA APPROVED (APRIL 2010), IMMUNOTHERAPY CANCER VACCINE CALLED PROVENGE.
    3. You own a company that owns numerous patented CANCER VACCINE MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY and is making continual mfg automation improvements while working in their 2 brand new, high tech, 165k and 180k sq foot facilities in GA and CA. Together, these 2 plants can handle $1B in Provenge revenue (blockbuster status) and up to $2B after automation.
    4. You own a company whose YOY Provenge sales revenue illustrates one of the top 10 oncology launches in history. Wallstreet wants you to focus on quarterly sales growth, which were flat in 2012 as CEO Johnson decided to restructure and put his team in place. Restructuring completes at the end of Q2/2013, but notice the YOY Provenge sales since FDA approval! The sales growth trend was phenomenal and it’s something wallstreet analysts or mainstream articles NEVER MENTION!
    2010 = $48M
    2011 = $216M
    2012 = $322M (82m+80m+78m+82m) (Dr. Gold out & John Johnson sworn in Feb 2012)

    2013 = TBD
    2014 = TBD
    2015 = TBD

    2016 = TBD ($600M convertible bond due in Jan; JPM largest bondholder! Conversion stockprice is $51).
    2017 = Buyout Prediction(BidWar:PFE, JNJ, MRK, Roche, LLY, SNY, Bayer, BMY, NVS, but Amgen WINS ;o)
    2018 = “ “ “ “

    2019 =
    2020 =
    2021 =

    5. You own a biotech that has 12 YEARS MARKET EXCLUSIVITY FOR PROVENGE and just finished 1/4 of the way through their commercial growth cycle. Years 1-3 were about ramping manufacturing up, getting through the year-long Medicare CMS debacle, and educating the 3000+ oncologists and 10,000+ urologists in the U.S. on this new paradigm in cancer treatment and settling the fears of the Medicare reimbursement climate.
    Years 4-6 will continue educating doctors, increasing/hiring sales/staff support for urologists and begins the growth/profitability years for dndn, which ironically, also follows CEO Johnson, his executive team and newly hired sales team vesting of stock & options. They all just received their stock & options this January.
    CEO Johnson received almost 400,000 additional shares and now owns a total of 728,000 shares. They vest 25% on Jan, 2014 and 6.25% each quarter afterward until, coincidentally at 100%, on January 2017.

    6. You own a company whose therapeutic cancer vaccine product has an enormous mCRPC market and fulfills an unmet medical need. The American Cancer Society says:
    - 1-2 million men have prostate cancer (pc) in the U.S.
    - 241,740 men will/have been diagnosed with pc this year.
    - 3% or about 30,000 men are NEWLY DIAGNOSED throughout a year (7500/per quarter) with mCRPC (Provenge label).
    - 6% or about 60,000 men are LIVING with mCRPC (as newly diagnosed men typically have 2 years to live). Before FDA approval of Provenge back in April 2010, this number was always touted by DNDN in their Powerpoint presentations as being 100,000 men. Robyn Karnauskas from Deutsche said there were 70,000 men who qualify for Provenge: .
    But lets’ remain conservative and say 60,000 living in the U.S. with mCRPC.
    - 30,000 men die each year from mCRPC.
    -The baby boomer influx over the next 2-8 years only sustains or increases the statistics.

    7. You own a biotech whose product has no threat from a biosimilar (generic) until April 2022!

    8. You own a company that is only treating (on average in 2012), 860 men per quarter ($80M). When DNDN moves to treat 1076 men per quarter, that equates to $100M (breakeven). Treating 1076 men is an annual rate of only 4,304 men ($400M) and that is still only a TINTSY WINTSY FRACTION OF THE TREATABLE MARKET (given 30,000 newly diagnosed yearly and 60,000 living with mCRPC).
    No mainstream or wallstreet article or Greg Schiffman (after FDA approval) or CEO Johnson today will discuss the size of the U.S. mCRPC market size anymore.
    Greg Schiffman only mentions the following statistic during his PPT presentations: “30,000-35,000 men are newly diagnosed with mCRPC throughout a year. Remember this point #8!

    9. You own a company where if dndn treats say, 6000 men yearly, that equates to $558M in revenue ($93k x 6000). And yet even 6000 men out of 30,000 men newly diagnosed throughout a year is still only a TINTSY WINTSY FRACTION of the treatable market. And again, we're not including the 60,000 men living with mCRPC in the U.S.!
    GET THE PICTURE?! If you don't remember anything from this writeup, remember this particular point! Go ahead, calculate what treating 7500 men annually would be.

    10. Never mind, I’ll do it. You own a company where, say dndn reaches treating 7500 men ($700M) annually, that still leaves 22,500 men left from those newly diagnosed w/ mCRPC throughout a year and certainly leaves the 60,000 that are living with mCRPC. If you really want to believe wallstreet’s manipulative theory about how new competition is currently impacting Provenge sales, go ahead.
    But realize this fact: THERE ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH mCRPC MEN TO GO AROUND TO THE COMPETITION EVEN IF DNDN TREATS 7500 or 10,000 YEARLY! This is a critical point so remember it! DNDN treating 10,000 men per year is blockbuster status ($930M)! And yet, that still leaves the conservative numbers of 20,000 men newly diagnosed in a year and the 60,000 still living with mCRPC to go to any so-called threatening competition like Xtandi or Zytiga.
    This is why the competition theory that wallstreet and major hedgie shorts tout is so laughable.
    And now you also know why DNDN still has 2 brand new, high tech plants that can handle $1B in Provenge revenue and up to $2B after automation. They will need BOTH OF THEM ;o)
    What is frustrating as phuck is the possibility that CEO Johnson dragged out the ramp-up during 2012 on behalf of his wallstreet analysts and his top 10 shareholders, so they could short to distort this company and stock last year and finish driving out any retail leftover from the Dr Gold days. Yes, Johnson is putting his people and sales team in place, but shame on him if he did otherwise…because it would be devastating to learn this was occurring from a dying patient’s perspective who need PROVENGE NOW!

    11. You own a company where the EU statistical population of men with pc is similar to that in the U.S. The next EU CHMP meeting is scheduled for Feb 18-21. IMO, the announcement of the EU CHMP Opinion for Provenge/Sipuleucel-T (or Autologous Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells Activated With PAP GM CSF as it’s suspiciously called hidden in the EU CHMP Evaluation pdf files) will be Friday, Feb 22 or will be announced during the Q4/2012 CC on Monday, February 25th.
    If we don’t hear of an EU partnership announcement by Feb 25th, negotiations swing further into the favor of DNDN if the CHMP opinion is positive. The next deadline for Big Pharma to do an EU deal with DNDN would be by the marketing authorization date.
    67 days after a positive chmp opinion comes the EU marketing authorization (early May). Once dndn receives their EU marketing authorization, the chances of a Big pharma partner decrease immeasurably because why would dndn share the enormous EU region Provenge sales with anyone once the marketing authorization is in hand? They have the in-house international expertise to manage the EU on their own and keep private their patented Delivery Cassette Technology to themselves. If we hear of a big pharma partner, it should come by early May or before the marketing authorization is received. It may come afterward, but the deal would’ve been discussed prior to receiving the marketing authorization. This is Negotiation 101 folks!
    Also, don’t expect fireworks if Provenge receives a positive chmp opinion on Feb 22nd or Feb 25th. Expect either some short covering or millions of shorting to occur during this positive event as wallstreet may make up something to generate uncertainty around this positive event and support it by massively shorting the stock again. Remember, the hedgefunds/banks want to own ALL 154 MILLION OS shares of this company OVER TIME because dndn won’t do another secondary offering. They will continue doing whatever it takes to accomplish their strategic stock accumulation through stock volatility (via massively shorting or covering millions).

    12. You own a company whose CEO is the former choice of Carl Icahn when he was chairman for Imclone. A year later, Johnson then sold Imclone to Lilly for $6.5B.
    Johnson knows how to work with wallstreet and manage retail expectations, unlike Dr. Gold. Would be interesting if Icahn learns that his former CEO select is now running the next big biotech, but he’s busy fighting with Bill Ackman over HLF, but I digress!
    CEO Johnson will cater to the 30+ wallstreet analysts following his company and to his Top 10 Largest DNDN shareholders and NOTE HOLDERS like JP Morgan. That is any CEO's job and simply follows the 80/20 rule he learned during his early commercial/sales years.
    80/20 is a firm philosophy practiced by all top CEO's and we cannot expect anything otherwise from Johnson. The secret is to understand what might be occurring between DNDN and the largest shareholders (eg: JP Morgan who is dndn’s largest convertible note holder at 42.4 million shares) as a result of 80/20.

    13. You own a company where institutional holdings remained firm during the steadily increasing massive short selling shananigans of 2012. Short interest grew from 32 million in Feb 2012 to 47.1 million in Nov 2012. Notice the stock price declined as well from $17 down to $4. CEO Johnson isn’t off to a great start. Institutional Short interest still remains at an all-time high TODAY AT 47.2 million. All the while, current institutional holdings in 2012 remained steady at 58%
    But that 58% has definitely climbed higher since and you’ll be able to see this on May 15 (45 days after a quarter closes). One example why we know institutional holdings has increased is….

    14. You own a company where more major institutions are taking large positions in dndn now! Such as the recent purchase by Deerfield; 9 million shares of dndn

    15. IMO, You own a company where various major institutions WILL CONVERT THEIR NOTES by January 2016 and get their millions of shares when dndn share price hits the conversion price of $51. Especially JP Morgan…! Historically, JP Morgan and DNDN have been like two peas in a pod.
    In my speculative opinion, JP Morgan (and the rest of the note-worthy convertible bond holders) will convert and get their 42.4 MILLION SHARES OF DNDN SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT 36 MONTHS OR 12 QUARTERS (BY JAN 2016) via some massive short covering event. What it is, I don’t know. It could be when John Johnson decides to give yearly guidance again; like maybe in 2014 or something. I just don’t know. What I do know is those institution(s) that are 47.2 million short are still short and WILL COVER SOMETIME IN THE FUTURE when they’re ready to (but by Jan 2016).

    16. You own a biotech company that saw institutional short interest increase from 14 million (August 2011) to 18 million on that fateful day when Mitch Gold pulled 2011 guidance. Do I blame Mitch Gold for pulling guidance? Yes! But, I mostly blame those wealthy entities that shorted an additional 4 million shares that day to support that news, which triggered stoplosses, caused retailers to sell, which exacerbated the stock price decline from $36 to $11. Many were crippled that day, including myself, if it makes anyone here feel better.
    The major tute short interest then further increased to 23 million in October 2011 and the stock price declined to about $7. This is pure price management or manipulation; whichever word you prefer. Your expectations as a retailer are always being managed by dndn & the wallstreet analysts/big players. So put your damn poker glasses on and continue looking for “tells” and leave them on when following this biotech.
    If you remember, there was a price pop in Jan/Feb 2012 as the stock reached $17 bucks with some simple short covering on good news, but since late Feb 2012 (when CEO Johnson was sworn in) the short interest ratcheted up from 23 million to 28 million to 32 million and then steadily trended upward 2 million shares a month to 47.2 million TODAY!
    What has Mr. Johnson said about this massive trend of nearly 2 million shares per month over the last 16 months? Squadush! What has the HLF CEO done about the short attack on his company?
    Remember, powerful rich entities will control and manage the stock price as they see fit via massively shorting or covering millions. What is puzzling again, however, is our CEO Johnson has been mum on the incredibly high short interest trend (unlike the HLF CEO who is vehemently defending his company from the short attack). Also, realize that institutional shorts don't get squeezed like many think. They're either hedged long and if not, the 47.2 million shares short is worth only about $350-$550million. And that is PENNIES to the major hedgefund(s) & major bank(s) that are short DNDN. Also, these powerful firms manage anywhere from $5B to $500B in assets! You cannot squeeze them or make them lose money given their massive portfolios! They will cover when they're ready to cover in a strategic sense; not because good news from dndn suddenly FORCES THEM TO cover in fear of losing $$ from their big player partners suddenly buying shares of dndn.
    ROFLOL! What a wallstreet myth many retailers have been made to believe over the years.
    Short interest can be tracked, but remember, it’s only a data point in time. We don’t know what tute shorts do on a daily basis with dndn’s stock price. And also, the data released is about 2 weeks old, but believe me, I’ve been tracking it, religiously and you can easily identify PATTERNS!

    17. You own a company where this stock was $57 bucks for an important reason back on April, 2010 when Provenge received FDA approval. It was projected to be a blockbuster company then because of the enormous mCRPC market size. Well, the reality is that the mCRPC market size hasn’t changed one iota (see point 6). Yes, there are more so-called “competitive” players (Xtandi, Zytiga) but the biggest myth wallstreet wants you to believe is that competition is impacting Provenge sales and doctors are prescribing them over Provenge. Well, go back and look at YOY Provenge sales in point 4 please!
    DNDN says sequencing is (per NCCN guidelines) what ethical doctors will follow to prolong the dying pc patients life to the MAXIMUM! I’ll let you decide if you want to believe wallstreet or what the doctor and dying patient want regarding his quality of life and his maximum life expectancy!
    The fact that the dndn stock price wavers upon competition news or an analyst downgrade isn’t because retail suddenly sells, it’s because major institutions are SHORTING UP TO MILLIONS to support the negative news and are in control managing the stock price.

    18. Again, you own a company where wallstreet wants you to believe that competition will impact Provenge revenue going forward while the company wants you to believe that oncologists/urologists will sequence the available therapeutic options to extend the patients life to the MAX! Lets believe that ethical doctors have the patients maximum life expectancy interests at heart and not greedy wallstreet.

    19. You own a company where people you don't know will talk about the daily, weekly, or monthly problems of DNDN on a message board. And yes, there is such a thing called “paid message board posters”. You’ll also find mainstream or wallstreet articles that have spun past 2012 quarterly news as a negative (eg: old plant closing, layoffs, restructuring, competition)…, all the while hedge funds & major banks look at investing in DNDN over a period of quarters & years over the 12 YEARS of market exclusivity that Provenge enjoys under Obamacare.
    Remember, to expand your timeframe goggles over a 12 year period when you think of DNDN. Realize it’s only been 2.8 years since Provenge received FDA approval. Realize that Provenge is just going into year 4 of commercializion…with one helluva YOY sales launch since April 2010.
    You'll then be thinking like a time tested, manipulative wealthy hedgefund/major bank.

    20. You own a company where FUDsters will talk about lawsuits when DNDN can easily settle anything via insurance or cash....just like a big pharma does...IF THE LAWSUITS HAVE ANY MERIT TO BEGIN WITH!

    21. You own a company where just about every wallstreet analyst is covering this so-called losing story of a biotech

    22. You own a company that last year closed an OLD manufacturing plant in N.J. (and just recently sold it to Novartis for $43M) and layed off about 500 employees (100 went to Novartis) to execute a restructuring plan.
    Corporations consolidate & close old plants all the time because successful companies follow a 3-5 year forecasted strategic plan! CEO Johnson wants to put his team in place at the start of the growth phase of DNDN (years 4-6 out of 12 years of market exclusivity). This is nothing new here, but wallstreet & mainstream articles will SPIN plant closings & layoffs as a negative and will certainly support that news via massively shorting the stock (which floods the market & drives the price DOWN).
    Speaking of massive institutional shorting/covering again...

    23. You own a company that has seen short interest increase over a 16 month period from 14 million on Aug 2011 to 47.2 million today. These hedgefund/bank entities will control and manage the price as they see fit via shorting or covering MILLIONS OF SHARES! The short interest was 32 million in Feb 2012 (when CEO Johnson was sworn in) and it steadily climbed month to month during 2012 to 47 million by Nov 2012. What is puzzling, however, is our CEO Johnson has been mum on the increasing TREND of incredibly high short interest (unlike the HLF CEO who is vehemontly defending his company). Oh, and these institutional shorts don't get squeezed like many think. They're either hedged and if not, $350-$550 million is just PENNIES to the several hedgefunds and major banks who are short DNDN and yet manage anywhere from $5B to $500B in assets! You cannot burn them given the massive size of their portfolio.
    This is analogous to account manager managing a $15M region of sales. If S/he loses a $21k account because they decide to go to another supplier, its not crippling. You don’t want to lose that customer, but if they leave, your entire $15M region of sales is barely impacted.
    Forget the myth of burning institutional shorts. It doesn’t happen. Retail shorts, however, are another matter, but the 47.2 million shares that are short DNDN and worth about $500M is most definitely major hedgefund institutional shorts!

    24. You own what is maybe the next Celgene that is doing wonderful things for dying patients who have mCRPC prostate cancer....but is also unfortunately connected & part of wallstreet.... where ponzi schemes, libor scandals, credit rating scandals, insider trading, high frequency trading, naked short selling, MASSIVE SHORT SELLING OVER TIME (eg: DNDN, HLF, ARNA), and the occassional flash crash exist.
    With CEO Johnson underpromising in 2012 & generating some uncertainty around his company gave Wallstreet & Mainstream the ammunition to publish negative articles, while massively shorting the company to support those negative articles and driving the price steadily downward, flushing the last remaining retail out since that fateful day on August 3rd, 2011.

    25. You may wonder who I am or why I wrote this compilation on dndn, but it really doesn’t matter. It’s not about me! It’s about DNDN ramping manufacturing up ASAP and treating the enormous population of mCRPC patients ASAP!
    But at least I can tell EVERYONE to consider investing or remaining TRULY LONG in what I believe is the next Celgene and leave less of the 154 million OS shares for Wallstreet! This whole massive shorting shenanigan which began in August 2011 is about one thing and ONE THING ONLY:

    Again, in the grand scheme of wallstreets timeline, we're only 2.8 years since FDA approval of Provenge (April 2010) and under Obamacare, Provenge will enjoy 12 years of market we still have almost 10 years left with no threat from a biosimilar!
    The restructuring & hiring of sales support personnel and the training & awareness of the 10,000+ urologist communities across the U.S. is still revving up.
    The next leg up on Dendreon's growth story is just beginning. Don't be surprised if Carl Icahn comes sniffing around since his former Imclone CEO select John Johnson is now at the helm of the next big biotech!

    SO, TELL EVERYONE YOU KNOW NOW about what you know that you own in DNDN (only invest what you can afford to lose). IMO, DNDN is a PEOPLE'S/RETAILER STOCK, not a HEDGEFUND/BANK STOCK. We've all been through too much over the last 5-10 years with DNDN, the DEEP CAPTURE CRAP and the 2008/2009 financial crisis to have this stock/company which is being setup for a buyout years from now...TO BE OWNED ONLY BY WALLSTREET!
    Also, feel free to ask CEO Johnson at the next shareholder meeting in June why he wasn’t concerned about the massive short interest TREND AND NOW THE very high short interest of 47.2 million TODAY. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t dodge this question or pawn it off to one of his colleagues.
    Thank You!
    Ps: Most grateful to all those 55+ people that “recommended” my initial post here on the IV Board. I salute YOU!

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    • so do we think this may happen soon

    • interesting

    • Outstanding summary and well thought out. Helps explain the low pps still, when everything points to profitability next year and major cash generation beyond next year.

      DNDN has only just begun. Yes, the small retail investor can only sit patiently and wait. We're at the mercy of master manipulators and very Big money (as you clearly pointed out)
      I'm still well underwater myself, but will not consider selling anything until we're back into the 20s.
      I'm confident we'll get there.

      Thank you for spelling it all out so well. What more can be said?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Bass, thanks for your insights and for spending your time explaining them the the board. I pretty much dropped off the board because of frustration a couple of years ago. Wuepper and I used to joust pretty much every day. He knows me as "Freddy" as in Flintstore. I learned a lot from him and you while remaining long through some very tough time. I hope you and he are doing well. Thanks again!


      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to abadabadodo
      • I remember reading wuepper's posts, call him back for the ride back up! I mainly posted on the science side until initial approval, then dropped off. At that time, I was unemployed and DNDN upside helped me wait a year to hold out for a better job. I have a medical background and limited investing experience. I've enjoyed learning the financial / business side. Speaking of which, I'm still trying to understand the convertible bonds due in 2016. Do they contribute to the short share percentage? Or just listed as debt. Can MMs contribute to the short share volume to drive the price down such as on options expiration days? It does seem Thurs/Fridays are more volatile. The short analytics link on Investor Village DNDN board (at top) is quite amazing - showing 1/2 of the massive volume on 2/6 and 2/8 to be short despite recent rising stock prices. Bull / bear war for sure if this info is accurate!

    • I like especially this part.....

      8. You own a company that is only treating (on average in 2012), 860 men per quarter ($80M). When DNDN moves to treat 1076 men per quarter, that equates to $100M (breakeven). Treating 1076 men is an annual rate of only 4,304 men ($400M) and that is still only a TINTSY WINTSY FRACTION OF THE TREATABLE MARKET (given 30,000 newly diagnosed yearly and 60,000 living with mCRPC).
      No mainstream or wallstreet article or Greg Schiffman (after FDA approval) or CEO Johnson today will discuss the size of the U.S. mCRPC market size anymore.
      Greg Schiffman only mentions the following statistic during his PPT presentations: “30,000-35,000 men are newly diagnosed with mCRPC throughout a year. Remember this point #8!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • That's me ;•]
      GL everyone

0.1270.000(0.00%)Nov 18 4:00 PMEST