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Dendreon Corporation Message Board

  • hopkinsguy79 hopkinsguy79 Aug 10, 2013 11:18 AM Flag

    Q's for DNDN investors - serious responses only pls!

    Hey guys - just a couple of "personal opinions" and questions for you longs...well, to start with, i never have owned DNDN stocks in the past nor do i own any now. With all the focus on the stock lately due to the PPS taking a dip once again, and DNDN trading below $4 now, i just wondered....

    - Revenue forecast was $74.8M vs $73.3M...so revenue miss was what? $1.5M? So, how is this equivalent to a 26% drop?

    - i currently hold Biodel (BIOD), KERX and MNKD stocks (as well as a couple of Technology stocks) , and i don't say this with intentions of promoting any other biotech stock...Just to make a point, though,...regardless of the sales growth, estimates, marketing strategy of DNDN, how is it that Biodel, who has no product approved by FDA that is out there on the shelf, is close to $5 per share, and DNDN, who actually is generating revenue is cheaper? (this actually is a rhetorical question :) )

    - One question to ask is (to which i don't know the answer): What's the success rate of DNDN's treatment? From what i gather, it costs about 100K (correct me if i am wrong), which may or may not be too costly, but if it has a huge success rate in terms of survival, is it really too much? Do any of you know how successful this treatment is?

    - How do you feel about the 50M short interest vs the total float? Just the RSI itself signals how seriously oversold this stock is, probably mostly due to the huge short interest...Could there be a significant (%-wise) turnaround at this point?

    Thanks,
    Disclosure: I currently do not have a position in DNDN, but am considering a small position in the very near term.

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    • IMO Provenge sales are growing, slowly but growing again, they need to post a $100 million revenue quarter, which will stop the negative cash flow. Probably the March 2014 quarter. Then plenty of time to replace the convertible with a 2021 issue.
      European approval - European partner
      50 Mill shorts that have to be covered
      = shortsqueeze on good news which will come - just a matter of time

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Toe dipping stage started Friday in the $3.5-3.7 range. We may see PPS drop another few days with Aug Exp. coming up. Actual option pain is $2. For those selling, expect better stock prices after Aug expiration if you can wait. Justifiable to start a small speculative position if you have time to wait - just in case we don't get the optimistic news many of us are waiting for this Aug / Fall. Avoid options- chances are high you'll lose it all on this stock. Too much price manipulation. Agree with others here on the possible positive catalysts. We're going to see all the SCARY / fearful stories this week to continue the selling plus margin calls. Seen this movie before. Bearishness is too extreme currently, pendulum should swing back more bullish with time.

    • Don't let anyone spin this any other way on you. DNDN is losing to all the other prostate cancer drugs. That's why they missed and that's why the company said sales won't increase this year as forecast. There are way better companies to invest in then this one.

      • 1 Reply to tricrazi
      • Will have to disagree on all points.
        1) Immunotherapy for cancer one of the disruptive technologies and hence resisted and pounded like the devil from established entities, but like other technologies that work it will eventually succeed.

        2) Provenge synergies likely with both Zytiga and Xtandi. Provenge will not go away. At first it will look like a struggle between treatments but then it will become clear that it is a mutually beneficial arrangement for multiple therapies (Wall Street always tries to make it look otherwise) and for patients as well.

 
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