....I was gonna wait to see if I could get closer to four even, but I sold lots of big movers yesterday....and the pile of cash I've built up is getting me nervous. I will probably add before year end.....we'll see.
STC......thats a tough one. On the one hand, analysts are upping their price targets..one of them just bumped there's up to $35; on the basis that housing has just turned, and originations due to home sales will increase steadily over the coming years. The flip side is that we have been in a 'refi boom'; which should subside sometime soon. Overall, in the very short run; the refi deflation effect is a bigger negative than the home sales positive effect (imo)....thus 2013 will have difficult comps. But the positive increase home sales effect will last far far longer and provide a long term positive for the entire industry. Overall, analysts have upgraded the title insurer's and upped price targets; while at the same time giving estimates for '13 lower than '12.
I was buying the mortgage company SNFCA in Dec/Jan '11 in the low/mid one's. I've sold all of it at a huge gain (its hit double digits). I also have sold some STC recently.
But I have been looking to add other cheap looking housing plays with some of the gains....but plays that benefit from home sales rather than total originations (including refi's). I had some APT for a while now; buying under $1.20; but just recently added a bunch more in the $1.30's. I 'm not certain that their roofing/siding products will show increased sales near term, but it should happen sometime soon, and they were positive in their last earnings call. Meanwhile, it has a great balance sheet; and the very hot sector could provide great trading opportunities going forward just based on the smell of future revenue increases.
There has been a persistent heavy seller recently in APT; its always possible that the seller knows something I don't.
this junk is going down to hit 3.03 before it bounces back. Why would you guys buy it at that high? Either wait it out buy it at that price or simply short it. I personally wanted to sell short it when it was at 4.52 but had no extra money in hand. Sold it short yesterday 3.93 but it's not to late.