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ProShares Short S&P500 Message Board

  • keybotthequant keybotthequant Jul 2, 2011 8:10 AM Flag

    SPX Chart shows Fibonacci Retracements and Gaps

    SPX daily chart shows the spectacular five-day bull move which takes price back up to the February 1340 gap high. From the 1365 early-May gap high down to the 1265 bottom was a 100 point fall, then, back up to 1240 which is a 75% Fib retracement (not shown). The positive divergence bottom (dark blue lines) easily forecasted the intial bounce off the bottom, then price came back down again, for two tests of the 200 MA, to satisfy the money flow indicator that was not positively diverged. At that point, at the second test of the 200 MA, it was all systems go for the upside, and the index shot up like a rocket.

    Notice how the price tops over the last 8 days, from the 1296 top to the 1340 top now is verified with long and strong indicators across the board, therefore, price will want to make another higher high. Further, the MACD histogram shows higher bars as compared to the early May top (green circles), which means the histo wants to see another higher high as well. With this known, price cannot run up day after day without resting, so a retracement is in order so price can consolidate, rest, and get ready for the next move up.

    This 1340 is an attractive level for price to fall back down from, also note the resistance at 1345-ish, so give it a little more room on the upside, perhaps traders will be in a happy mood after the holiday weekend. The Fibonacci retracements are shown on the chart for this move up from the 1265 bottom. Note the 1360 gap above that needs filled, that is the upside target, and, at the same time, notice all the gaps left behind below (green circles). After this upside plays out over the coming days/weeks, the indexes will be heading back down.

    For the days ahead, a move down to the 38% thru 62% Fib retracements, 1294-1312, would be in order, and note how two of the gaps lay within this zone, reinforcing this target area. Projection is a top here at 1340-1345, then down to 1294-1312, then back up for the gap fill to 1360, probably topping at 1360-1375.

    For SPX chart use search box above for keystone speculator or view at stockcharts public charts list keystone speculator.

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