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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Message Board

  • plonyalmony plonyalmony Aug 13, 2002 12:32 PM Flag

    golman sachs - downgrade after drop

    on valuation alone, the company has become a buy

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    • You are wrong, it was not on valuation; it was on fundamentals--so therefore it is not a buy at these prices.

      • 1 Reply to barwire51
      • Its not quite a buy yet. The concern of course is that ARI is getting so close with its payout ratio above 90% this qtr.

        Longer term LA is a great office market because of the very diverse economy here. LA is not immune but its diversity at least allowed ARI and KRC for that matter to hold up much longer and better than many of the other office reits.

        If you take a 20 year time horizon and had to choose two reits ARI and KRC would be the choice from a perspective that So CA should outperform No CA after years and years of the opposite occurring.

        Now Norcal dependency on tech is a negative as the reality that tech is a cyclical play as much as autos and steel. History will show that this period represents the end of the great era in PC-oriented tech. What happens next and when is everyone's guess.

        You got to get to 9% yield to peak my interest in adding to my ARI.

16.49-0.08(-0.48%)Aug 28 4:02 PMEDT