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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Message Board

  • DiamlerFord DiamlerFord Sep 2, 2002 12:31 PM Flag

    picks

    low risk - buy to own forever with increasing returns - ARI - Beverly Hills and Westwood won't allow additional office construction - other southern california areas are almost as restrive - this is a collection of focused (SoCal) quality properties with a diverse and healthy tenant mix

    nominal risk - great upside - HRP- no one loves it, it has a complex structure, but it has a super diverse tenant base, great upside when it frees itself from ownership in other investments, and
    high risk - very high reward - PGE - Chicago CBD is the most vital business area other than NY; company was beat up on liquidity issues, but has now put immediate problems to bed and, most importantly, as a sign of legitimacy, Sam Zell's liutenant has joined the board
    some risk - very very high reward - MHX - a hotel reit with an upscale, business and convention portfolio. it lost its shareholder base last sept when the merger with FCH busted by 9/11. will achieve massive upside when corporate travel recovers.

    some risk - very high reward with technical upside built in - TRZ - recently beat up when SSB analyst had a hissy-fit at its conf call; it has an excellent CBD office portfolio including the much-maligned but very profitable Sears Tower. It just got the best management possible - Callahan, the guy who built Equity Office to the powerhouse it is now

    low - risk - great returns for those with time - CTA - high barrier to entry California Retail Reit - has a collection of properties which have enormous upgrading potential in areas where it is almost impossible to get additional retail zoning.

    HIW - there is value here, but i am seriously concerned that the short-term has more nasty surprises like WCM and USAir; the fundamental problem is that the economies of those states in which the company operates just don't attract or retain the types of businesses which make class A office bldgs an integral part of the economic landscape

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    • PGE is dead meat. It has no capacity to participate in the next big developmt cycle within CHI area markets. Over 4M sq ft of new office space under developmt and all they have to show for it is Dearborn Center. Investors have suffered a total collapse in PGE while mgmt fiddles past the graveyard simply saying to investors "wait for Dearborn and all will be fine". The investors that have held all the way down will never recover inasmuch as $2-$3 of nav was flushed down a toilet in the Blackstone deal meaning Dearborn has to makeup for that misadventure too.

      HRP being a nondevelpmt office reit cannot deliver the yields on new acquisitions of its peer group. Translation. HRP can only purchase ppties in secondary and terciery markets of no interest to its peer group.

 
ARI
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