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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Message Board

  • ferdiefor ferdiefor May 5, 2003 12:34 PM Flag

    Dear RBC Capital Markets,

    I know you have very bright people working for you. However, I disagree with your upgrade today inasmuch as ARI is getting fully valued. Perhaps you should have followed my lead when I upgraded at $20.60.

    Seriously, ARI is getting close to a top given its near term prospects. I am assuming today's action is more about the ISI index for service workers showing an increase which of course in time benefits office reits.

    Looks like Maguire is going to come to market at the right time. I assume he will get an inflated price for his properties even though LA CBD hasn't outperformed West LA for example.

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    • Continue to enjoy your considered comments about ARI. I have added to my position in the last several months and now have my "full allocation".

      This is the only reit that I own. I recognize it's unique situation but I now have "plenty" and don't wish to add still more because of diversification considerations.

      My question to you is: In your opinion, is there any other reit worth considering for puchase at these price levels? (I understand that nothing is identical to ARI). For this part of my portfolio, income and acceptance of businessman's risk are the primary considerations, with capital appreciation a secondary, but desireable, objective.

      I value your objective views in this market. Any of your comments will be used by me solely as a basis for my own research and consideration.

      • 1 Reply to RealBeauMec
      • NO!

        At these levels there is nothing worth considering IMHO. I think every office reit is ahead of itself and perhaps will deflate no earlier than the time that q2 03 reports from the office reits re-enforce the view that office reits still have a ways to go before they actually participate in recovery.

        ARI, KRC, PP, CRE pleasantly surprised the markets with better quality earnings and reports that their markets were looking better. But the present post-war move is too far ahead of fundamentals.

        If we get a downdraft I am looking at PP at $26.68 or below. Reason is that CEO went into the open market in JAN (which of course we didn't know until more recently) and bought 20K shares. Mr. Prentiss is a very smart man and already owns a lot of his own shares. So I take his signal as one worth considering in terms of price level to consider.

        I'm still kicking myself for not getting my third lot of ARI executed before the close on the day I bought.

        Since you own ARI you will get to see how the market responds to a LA CBD IPO (like all those letters?). Maguire Properties will come public in late May or early JUN. Mostly Los Angeles down town assets including the famous tower.... I would not own Maguire. I think it will be overvalued and frankly the LA CBD rent rates are no better than West LA so why pay for downtown when you can own West LA?

16.42+0.02(+0.12%)Jul 28 4:03 PMEDT