"Roche has indicated that it anticipates making AT LEAST ONE (my caps) regulatory submission in 2011 to seek approval to commercialize GDC-0449." Why say "at least one"? They could have simply said that they anticipate filing for BCC. Not only is this great news for patients, but it should move the price considerably. I think it will make CNBC and the major network news programs. If so, the near-term (~3-5 days) price move may be substantial. I hope the future medical meeting is soon. I think that the mid-term price move MIGHT be a little muted until the safety study is finalized. We may soon be in the position of having to make an exit point decision. While we know that ongoing trials will show if GDC-0449 works on other tumor types, with all of the other trials going on these results can only help potential investors to wonder if the drug is efficacious for those other tumor types. For new investors, as desert says:
...maybe there will be more than one geographic filing: I believe with the FDA for the US firstly , then with EMA for the whole EU and last but not least also with Swiss Medic for Switzerland. Maybe there is also planned a filing within the BRIC states? All other indications will be a topic in the future!
In this particular case, with the potential events being so fluid, I do not have a pre-determined exit price. It has been two weeks since they cancelled at the conference - without a stated reason why. I have not been one to predict a buy-out, but who knows now?