How does the future loss of ~$1B/yr affect Curis? Will Roche have more interest in Curis? Will Roche have less interest in spending money on 0449 projects (is 0449 important enough for Roche's future plans)? Will there be no affect?
IMHO-This is great news for 0449. What other options does Roche have in replacing Avastin? This will fast track 0449 through FDA. The public will put a lot of pressure on FDA to approve a replacement for Avastin. I have already seen blogs of patients on Avastin who are in a panic trying to find Avastin's replacement. I think these patients will fight to get Curis' Vismodegib (0449) approved.
I really like your enthusiasm, but competition must be taken into account for any company/stock. This is one of the many reasons why biotech companies and their stockholders are in such a high risk/reward business.
A quick search of clinicaltrials.gov shows that there are 3962 trials aimed at some form or particular condition (breast cancer), in addition to combinations of drugs, etc. The website lists 82 Roche trials for breast cancer. I do not know how current the lists are.
The only breast cancer study in which 0449 was used (IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DRUG - RO4929097) was reported suspended on 6/21/2011 due to the potential risk of severe or life-threatening arrhythmia. There is one other study being conducted with the same combination, but it is not listed as being suspended. As we know, there are 25+ studies using 0449 and they are not listed as being suspended. Also, there are many RO4929097 studies that are still listed as current (not suspended). I will not speculate on why the study was suspended. I can't find a comment from neither Curis nor Roche on this. If the safety issue was specifically due to 0449 the stock would be practically worthless now.