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Curis, Inc. Message Board

  • desert_dweller93 desert_dweller93 Aug 2, 2012 11:45 PM Flag

    Just relistened to the cc and worth listening to again

    One thing that was pointed out here earlier was Michael Gray messing up on the cash projection and he did. He kept talking about 2012 and 2013 when he should have been talking about 2014 and 2015 IMO.

    One thing he said was that the ending cash balance at the end of 2012 is projected to be at the high end of previous guidance which was between $30-34 million. So if they are burning through $5 million/qtr based on the $44 million balance at 6/30 and projected $34 million at 12/31/12 ($10 million used for 2 qtrs) then without any cash additional cash they will easily have cash into the second half of 2014. He then discussed the milestone payments and went through the ones we expecting and IMO you could easily see our cash plus milestones carrying us through to the second half of 2015. This doesn't count any royalties to be received. This really does explain why they haven't been selling any shares under the ATM financing.

    THE BIGGEST THING I MISSED THE FIRST TIME AROUND: At about the 31 minute mark an analyst asked about prescription rates and Michael took over the answer from Dan. He said based on the data they have you see a 4 or 5 to 1 increase in prescriptions from Q1 to Q2. He then went on to explain that the first quarter revenue of $5.5 million was for inventory build up and that the actual revenue from prescriptions was probably closer to $1.5 - 2.0 million during Q1. With a 4 or 5 to 1 build up in the second qtr, he estimates the 2nd qtr prescription revenue was probably closer to $7-7.5 million in q2 with some inventory left. On a going forward basis we should see revenue more in line with when prescriptions are actually being written. If this trend continues for the rest of the year with large sequential growth in prescriptions being written we could see some nice surprise in Q3 and Q4 in terms of revenue IMO.

    Other scribbles:
    At 14:45 Dan said they are continuing to recruit patients for the phase 1 IV 101 formulation and they are currently in the second of 2 planned dose escalation studies and during the first phase of 225 mg ALL PATIENTS received benefit from the treatment was said at the 16 minute mark. I wonder exactly what that means? Could it mean as much as it sounds?

    At about 34 minutes Dan talks about the feedback they are getting from Roche and it is very positive and Roche is very pleased with the response they are getting from Dr's in terms of commercial uptake and more importantly patient responses. He said it will take some time for it to reach its full potential since physicians need to be educated and they are impressed with Roche's commitment to the drug.

    At about 37 minutes an analyst asks again about prescriptions and Dan again said they see a 4 to 5 times increase in prescriptions written from Q1 to Q2. Pointed out that the median duration on drug during trials was 13 months and reminded him that we are only at month 6 from launch. IMO this is huge since if the number of prescriptions keeps rising at a good clip, most of these patients will still be on drug for the next year or more which means sustainable and increasing recurring revenues.

    At 46 minutes Dan said he hopes to have IND filing for oral 101 in Q3 or Q4 2012. Potentially that means in less than 2 months since the end of Q3 is the end of next month.

    Overall as I stated the cc had good information and definitely didn't cause the sudden drop today. I keep pointing out the similarities to SGEN. Take a look at what happened to their stock price after they released 1st qtr results in which the stock dropped very temporarily to then recover and jump to new highs. It went from $17 to $28 in a matter of months after they released the results. I firmly expect us to get back all of our losses in a short period but if not, I am willing to wait it out. GLTA.

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