noting the rev increase rate of Q2 to Q1, 4x. I don't believe it was that detailed the other week at earnings. So based on that if we see linear growth worst case and they were saying 4-5x increase in sales then $30-35M possible it appears to me for Q3. Overall I thought he did a better job than the earnings CC.
The Street "downgrade" is completely useless - it as all computer-generated garbage shoveled into a template, as you can tell since there is not even an author listed. How can you use one format to compare Curis to Pfizer? Silly.
Regarding Operable -- Dan mentioned on the call yesterday that the ongoing P2 are being done in preparation for a P3 trial in 2013, so don't expect any early approvals there. The key issue is 'proving to dermatologists that the benefits of E outweigh the Adverse Events that occur'. This one will take some time ... 2015?
And as that sampling size increases with patients and professionals experiencing positive results........... you have something like this happening. http://www.mathwarehouse.com/exponential-growth/graph-and-equation.php OT Question What is a realistic timeframe that Erivedge could be used with operable patients? Could approval time be decreased as was the case with non operable patients? And another ot, it seems that the various other parts of the world that have had submission for approval would accelerate that process as the need is great and unmet given they're investigating real life results (where the sampling size is quickly growing) in the U.S. I guess I'm being logical and not realistic. And I'm not a medical professional aware of all the hoops to jump thru.
A fairly straightforward presentation today, but well worth it if you've listened to others that Dan P has done. Here's what I captured, both factually and between the lines:
-- CUDC-101 Oral Form - early in the presentation it was "expect to file IND in Q3", later "intend to file in Q3". Throughout Dan used different verbs concerning the oral form than he did during the last earnings call. Last time it was "are developing", "working on...", but I got the distinct feeling that this is finalized, and that they will file an IND within 6 weeks (EO 3Q). This is huge news - Oral 101 is the future of the company.
-- 907 IND he stated "hopefully the beginning of Q4". Encouraging.
-- "Pancreatic Carcinoma" was prominently listed at the top of the Ligand-Driven chart. Don't know if that has changed from old presentations (didn't look familiar) - I will research unless one of you info hounds beats me to it.
-- Dan took a new angle on the NCI/Ligand chart, saying the key is to "discover how to block Hedgehog" in these overexpressed cancers. A nod towards SU2C pre-treatment E approach?
-- E royalties go to "high single digit" WELL BEFORE $1B mark.
-- Debio royalties won't kick in until 5th patient of P2, which is 2H 2013 estimate. Ugh. This process really has been slow as mud.
-- Head/Neck results expected by EOY in the 12-22 patient test.