I dumped all my CRIS at $5, and now I'm comparing buying EXEL, with a PUFA for ph III compound due November 29th, and they own the whole compound, or CRIS, who has an approved compound, but only receive 5%-7% royalities, and CRIS's other potential compounds in ph 1 and ph 2 won't deliver for another three years at a minimum. Is this an easy choice?
The first problem with EXEL is management, the 2nd...Anyway,despite wholly owned, MTC much smaller than ABCC+ . That aside, 101 Oral has been slow in coming, Dan keep saying 3qtr, 31 days left. This is all my opinion as Dan only gives suttle hints.There is probably a 70 pct overlap between oral 101 & Cabo. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that in a few months we'll hear him mumble about bone scan & pain benefits from a safer less toxic compound than Cabo. It's very possible that I have it backwards, I own 30k+CRIS, 2k EXEL and regularly sell the covered calls on EXEL to make up for the management induced deeps. Witness this week as example, almost all the heavy hitters on twitter believe there was a leak, stock went before panel cancellation, then retreated after the news.
EXEL recent dilution and debt offering was obsene for a company that already had close to 300M in cash--its infested with shorts, their upcoming FDA decision is no big game changer for them even if approved because the patient popululation involved is small and the cancellation of their advisory meeting might actually not be a postive in the end? The company has laid off a lot of staff and what was a multi drug company has gone all in on CABO in multiple indications. The problem is other than the thyroid indication all the others are green with much more work to do. I don;t see any deals or buyouts on CABO---looks to me like the company raped shareholders for money security and I expect a long slog for EXEL over the next 18 months. I might trade from 3.50 if it occurs, but there is no compelling reason to be in it heavy IMO. I have made money on this in the past, but right now it seems like a dead stock to me doing alot of CABO work that takes long periods of time.
CRIS is working on multiple fronts and multiple indications and multiple compounds with a partners support on the regulatory front for their approved drug---CRIS seems more compelling to me at this point for a near to mid term move!