Looking at the Roche reports I think I have an estimate of Q4 sales. For the year 2012 Roche reported total Erivedge sales of $29 CHF, so that is $31.9 million. For the 1st half of 2012 the total Erivedge sales were $11 million. From Q# Curis report they have $450K in royalties for Erivedge, so that had to be on sales of $9 million for Q3 (using 5% royalty). So knowing what half of 2012 was from Roche and calculating Q3 from Curis we should get about $20 million through the end of Q3. So we should have sales of $11.9 million for Q4, leaving Curis with a royalty of $595K for Q4. That does not sound that impressive for quarter over quarter growth, but it is about 32%.
We should see approval in the EU any time now and that would nearly double the market for Erivedge. That is just the EU. I believe Chugai has Asia and I don't know where that stands at present in terms of filing.
Erivedge is going to be a slow grind towards blockbuster status, but the potential is certainly there. If they expand their market to operable BCC that will expand the label tremendously. There is also some very promising data coming from the pancreatic cancer trials, there are a total of 7 of these ongoing. An approval in that indication would be pretty amazing. I do not believe Curis is partnered with anyone for the pancreatic cancer indications either.