Has anyone been able to get numbers out of the Roche report that gives Q4 sales for Erivedge? For Curis their royalties last year were; Q1 $270K, Q2 $250K, and Q3 $450K. These are the numbers I got from the quarterly reports via Curis statements.
Earnings will probably not bail you out of this trade. Do you really think this is good enough for the short-sighted market? Think about the fact that the info is already known anyway. If you are not here for the long term you could be in for more pain than u can handle. This stock is the most unpredictable biotech I have ever seen and I have own it for 10 years.
After further reading on the details of the Roche/Genetech collaboration and also looking at the sponsors of the various pancreatic trials ongoing it looks like Roche/Genetech has an exclusive agreement for any drug developed from the Hedgehog pathway inhibitor. So the same royalty structure would apply here as well. Thinking about picking up a few more shares at this price and stash them away for a few years while sales mature on more clinical data on pancreatic shows the potential there.
It seemed like one of the only down sides to the price at this level was issuance of more stock diluting the stock and thus the price, but that is more or less behind us now as well.
Looking at the Roche reports I think I have an estimate of Q4 sales. For the year 2012 Roche reported total Erivedge sales of $29 CHF, so that is $31.9 million. For the 1st half of 2012 the total Erivedge sales were $11 million. From Q# Curis report they have $450K in royalties for Erivedge, so that had to be on sales of $9 million for Q3 (using 5% royalty). So knowing what half of 2012 was from Roche and calculating Q3 from Curis we should get about $20 million through the end of Q3. So we should have sales of $11.9 million for Q4, leaving Curis with a royalty of $595K for Q4. That does not sound that impressive for quarter over quarter growth, but it is about 32%.
We should see approval in the EU any time now and that would nearly double the market for Erivedge. That is just the EU. I believe Chugai has Asia and I don't know where that stands at present in terms of filing.
Erivedge is going to be a slow grind towards blockbuster status, but the potential is certainly there. If they expand their market to operable BCC that will expand the label tremendously. There is also some very promising data coming from the pancreatic cancer trials, there are a total of 7 of these ongoing. An approval in that indication would be pretty amazing. I do not believe Curis is partnered with anyone for the pancreatic cancer indications either.
Pretty good detective work. If you're correct that should give the price a nice boost on monday, as a 33% increase in sales over the prior quarter would be very solid growth.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Pretty smart question considering that I expect earnings for Curis to be reported early monday morning, and from a forward-looking perspective, how the market will react will likely depend on whether drug sales of its new medicine are up.
Sentiment: Strong Buy