Exactly why do we think CHMP will send this thru the roof when the stock is so weak and Roche is barely selling the product? It might get back to 3.50, may be and CHMP is not guaranteed, we might be repeating this conversation in March. I don't know TA but have you at least seen the chart, do you think there is support here, if so how strong is it? I promised myself this the year I stop behaving like retail investor altogether. Wall St wants to crush u and I, how is else do you explain what has happened to this stock. They were looking at things beyond what we see.
How often do new drugs start off with strong sales? Initial sales mean very little in comparison to investors in comparison to what is forward looking. Estimate of 4th quarter sales based on Roche's annual earnings report (as done by hamster last week) indicate that sales of Erivedge went up by about a third in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter. That is a solid gain, I don't know how much you'd expect sales to gain from quarter to quarter. At this point I feel we are just waiting for Curis' official report to make this point official.
I figure that approval l in Europe would add at least 33% to future sales. That should therefore, at least theoretically, add about the same amount to the stock price. So it should at least, conservatively, approach the $4.00 mark following that occurrence.
The chart certainly indicates very strong support here, there is a recent double-bottom at just above this level, and its essentially right above its 52 week low at this point. It would be a very ideal time to buy, IMO.