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E-House (China) Holdings Limited Message Board

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 16, 2009 11:54 PM Flag

    See comments from E-House

    Recovery in demand boosts sales of homes
    By Cao Qian | 2009-3-17
    A rebound in demand from end-users and investors boosted sales of homes in Shanghai last week to the highest level over the past 16 months.

    A total of 323,800 square meters of new homes, excluding those built for relocation uses, were sold in the city between March 9 and March 15, an increase of 38.3 percent from a week earlier, according to statistics released yesterday by E-House (China) Holdings Ltd.

    "The (sales) figure hit a nearly 70-week high and was almost equivalent to the weekly volume reached during the market heydays more than a year ago," said E-House analyst Xue Jianxiong. "The past month has witnessed an increasing demand from end-users, which mainly include newly weds and relocated residents, as well as some investors from other parts of the country."

    The 4-day Spring Real Estate Exhibition, which closed on Sunday in the city, also boosted buying momentum, analysts said. The annual event drew 130,000 visitors to the Shanghai Exhibition Center, a jump of more than 70 percent compared to 2008, according to its organizer.

    "The transaction volume of new houses hit 40,000 square meters and 51,000 square meters respectively in the city on Friday and Saturday, and reached 67,400 square meters on Sunday, the highest single-day volume in Shanghai since 2008," Lu Qilin, deputy head of research at Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co, told Shanghai Daily yesterday.

    While end-users emerged as the dominant force among home buyers, some investors have begun to tap the local property market which underwent a correction for nearly a year, analysts said.

    At a latest serviced apartment project with existing leasing contracts, located in the Gubei area of Changning District, 42 units out of a total of 112 were sold within five days at an average price of 27,740 yuan (US$4,061) per square meter. Another 40 units in the same project have been booked by investors from Wenzhou in Zhejiang Province who have paid deposits, industry sources said.

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    • cont'd..... True, it may be tempting to say that this means little in the context of recovering losses. One might also note that the fundamentals for Hong Kong based property developers working on the mainland are strong.

      The Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate Fund (TAO) tracks an index that measures the performance of publicly-traded companies and real estate investment trusts ("REITs") which are open to foreign ownership and derive a majority of their revenues from real estate development, management and/or ownership of property in China. The 40 companies in the index have an average P/E of 10.5 and an average P/B of 1.

      The distribution yield is annual and it doesn't appear to be particularly exceptional. The yield may be slightly north of 3%.

      Nevertheless, the potential wisdom in using TAO may be in the notion that China is spending a great deal on infrastructure. The companies in the Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate Fund (TAO) are fairly well-established developers, and they stand to benefit from China's stimulus package.

      Disclosure Statement: ETF Expert is a web log ("blog") that makes the world of ETFs easier to understand. Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor with the SEC, may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds and/or index funds mentioned above. Investors who are interested in money management services may visit the Pacific Park Financial, Inc. web site.

    • China Real Estate Investing Stands to Benefit from Stimulus Package I spent a fair amount of time in Southeast Asia in the late 80s and early 90s. I lived for about 3 years in Hong Kong as well as 1 year in Taiwan. And naturally, I always had an eye on China's "mainland."

      Believe it or not, most Hong Kong residents had embraced the change from England's colonial rule to China's "one-country-two-governments" promise. Call it cultural pride... call it "white ghost" fatigue. The fact of the matter was that folks in Hong Kong weren't as fearful about China's new government as an outsider might have been led to think.

      One very big reason? Many HK residents were certain that they were going to get rich quickly. Hong Kong was one of the world's largest examples of thriving capitalism. Scores of mainland workers were expected to arrive in Hong Kong. And real estate speculators had been bidding up values in 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997.

      When China took the reins of Hong Kong in 1997, scores of workers did NOT cross the former borders into the popular port city. Instead, they went to Shanghai and/or other "economic zones." Property values in Hong Kong fell 50% overnight and they've never come close to reaching their former highs.

      In contrast, China property values in places like Shanghai, even Beijing, soared. Granted, values took a huge hit after the 2008 Olympics. But many analysts are expecting property development to kick back into a high gear shortly.

      Enter one possibility: the Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate Fund (TAO).

      Claymore's timing for the release of TAO could not have been much worse. In the year December 2007 when TAO first began to trade until November 2008 (circa the credit crisis bottom), TAO lost more than 65% in value. The Vanguard REIT Fund (VNQ) for U.S. real estate investment trusts also fell 60%+, but it took longer for the Vanguard REIT Fund (VNQ) to troll those depths.

      But things can change in the blink of an eye! The Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate Fund (TAO) is nearly 50% higher off its lows, while U.S. REITs are still unsure of their direction.

    • Of course the broader market will help out the stock a bit....but as anticipated EJ is also seeing a surge in volume transaction sales in china right now which is only now being reflected in the stock...told you so! :) The really funny thing is that on the first day you posted on dec 18th, that was the same day I was telling everybody about the likely increase in volume transactions, which is now happeining....you should've listened to my advice you big sore loser!!! Oh, here is the link about the likely increase in volume transactions which was posted on the same day you initally started posting your lies on this message bd. in what I suspect is your efforts to get the stock cheaper. Told ya so!!!!! :)

    • Below is my response that u coward has blocked out several times since March 23!
      I'll keep trying to post here, until u permanently delete my ID rather than blocking me out from time to time!
      -----------------------------------------------------------------


      I hit another nail in ur coffin, ouch! It hurt so much that caused such shit explosions of ur a-hole, LMAO!

      Don't even try to fool the board with more lies. In a rush to cover ur sorry ass, u asked me "you've been posting here on this message bd for how long now?" To do you a favor, I give you the answer - I started posting here on Dec 18, 2008:
      http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_E/threadview?m=tm&bn=51495&tid=5864&mid=5879&tof=32&rt=1&frt=1&off=1

      Since then how EJ has performed itself? Not good at all. Here are its price changes:

      18-Dec-08: high 8.78, low 7.75, close 8.39
      23-Mar-09: high 8.50 (down 3.2%), low 7.67 (down 1.0%), close 8.50 (up 1.3%)
      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=EJ&a=11&b=18&c=2008&d=02&e=24&f=2009&g=d

      Note: It was because the US markets jumped about 7% on banks etc. yesterday (23-Mar-09) that EJ managed to close at $8.50, merely 1.3% (not "30-40%" that u think) up from $8.39 on 18-Dec-08, the day when I started posting here!

      LMAO! Another nail nail in ur coffin, ouch!!! :-]

    • See China version of subprime mortgages, "假按揭", explained by 时寒冰 (excerpts) on March 20, 2009.
      If needed, follow the steps below to get gibberish translation of the whole article by Google's Chinese-English online translator:

      (1) Copy the Chinese title, and paste it for Google Search.
      (2) Click "[ Translate this page ]" provided at the end of each listing.

      -----------------


      《近期房价上涨真相:假按揭骗局》


      春节过后,全国楼市突然出现了成交大幅反弹的“小阳春”行情。

      房价的下跌幅度,远远没有达到挤出泡沫的程度,也远远没有达到与民众实际购买水平相对接的程度。包含巨大泡沫的房价,还远没有到让民众“抢购”的地步。

      那么,住房成交量为何突然在1月和2月放大了呢?有三个原因:

      一是保障性住房占比增大。通过交易数据可以看出来:在近期新楼盘的交易中,保障性住房占据着比较大的比例。
      二是在国家减少交易环节的税收后,为投机大开绿灯,二手房交易被激活,
      第三个原因最重要,这是笔者调查得出的结论,也是许多开发商最心知肚明的原因:此次房屋成交量的回升,很大一部分乃是假按揭套现的结果。

      什么是假按揭?它是指开发商为资金套现,将手中的存量住房以虚构的买房人(内部职工或开发商亲属或素不相识的人)的名字购买,从银行套取购房贷款。程序一般如下:开发商通过给身份证持有人一定数额的报酬,有偿使用对方身份证,并由身份证持有人在按揭贷款合同上签字,签字完成,银行即根据合同向开发商放款,开发商提前收回投资。开发商和身份证持有人之间还会有一个协议,包含开发商承诺不需要身份证持有人承担任何债务以及保密条款等内容。

      显然,假按揭是一个风险转嫁过程。开发商通过假按揭,提前收回成本,变现利润,把包袱和风险悉数丢给银行,自己进退自如,完全占据主动。由于房价估值越高,假按揭从银行套取的资金越多,开发商自然倾向于提高价格。这正是房价与房屋成交量同步上升的根本原因。

      这一点,可以从银行新增贷款的大幅增加中清晰地感知到。今年1月份,我国新增贷款达到了令人瞠目的1.62万亿,同比多增8141亿元,接近今年预期新增贷款5.4万亿的30%;今年2月份,新增贷款再超1万亿元,达到1.07万亿元。前两月新增贷款规模达到2.69万亿元,同比多增1.64万亿元,完成了今年计划“新增贷款5万亿”的一半还多。

      如此庞大的贷款资金注入到市场,再加上此前已经解除绝大部分对房贷的限制,为开发商套现提供了天然的便利条件。开发商既然要搞假按揭,自然房价定的越高,套取的资金量越大,这正是近来成交量回升且房价上涨的内幕所在。

      如果仔细对照一下相关房屋成交的数据,就会发现一些有趣的现象:
      其一,诚如北京大学房地产研究所所长陈国强所言,当前北京楼市的这种“回暖”还是局限于部分楼盘,并没有成为市场普遍现象,就是热销现象没有普遍出现。这一点,不正是假按揭的典型特征吗?只是部分假按揭严重的楼盘热。如果楼市真正回暖,应该是整体性的回暖,至少是大部分楼盘回暖。许多人做过股票,在股市行情热的时候,垃圾股与绩优股往往是一起涨的。
      其二,房价并没有明显回落,这意味着,在民众对房价的下跌预期依然存在的情况下,这种泡沫依然严重的房价,是很难被消费者认可并接受的。更何况房屋成交量的上升,是与房价上涨同步进行的?

      显然,对于住房成交量的上升,我们不仅不能乐观,还应报以高度警惕。一旦开发商通过假按揭完成套现过程,高估值的房屋落到银行手里,银行就不得不承担种种巨大风险。

      应该认识到,由于连续10多年的大规模投资(以北京为例,其房地产投资一直占总投资的一半),产生了大量的存量住房(北京2008年上半年卖掉3.9万套住房,而截至2008年底,北京存量住房已达35.8万套,供大于求现象明显),而房价的过快增长,又逐渐脱离了民众的购买力,从而使得中国房地产步入了一个万分尴尬的境地:托住房价不下跌,绝大部分人买不起,开发商只能玩假按揭的把戏;让房价下跌,开发商与地方政府又不甘心,他们希望做到两全其美,即有成交量又能保住高房价。但现实往往与构想中的目标存在着巨大反差,在经济危机的大背景下,要做美梦,很容易陷于一场骗局之中。

      目前,舆论已经被开发商等强势既得利益集团控制,许多媒体的楼市版块,都因屈服于开发商的诱人广告而出卖灵魂,帮助开发商鼓吹,为公众编织陷阱。当那些开发商为高房价拼命鼓吹的时候,看看他们770多万的年薪,看看他们价值上亿元的股票占市值,就不难理解他们何以如此执着如此狂热了。是的,与这些强势利益集团相比,我的声音是微弱的,弱小得起不到任何作用。开发商既有地方政府撑腰,又有媒体这个工具,又有无良经济学家们帮助鼓吹……一句话,他们有权又有势!

      如果一个国家穷得只剩下房子,如果一个国家的人民起早贪黑地操劳就是为了拥有一套房子,如果一个国家穷途末路到只有靠掠夺性十足的房地产才能维持增长,支撑这个国家经济发展的能够持续的能力在哪里?民众失去的归宿感又将在何时才能找回?

      ......


      于2009年3月19日 发表于3月20日

      • 1 Reply to american_is_number1
      • Hate to break it to you but ehouse is not a developer. The current situation will allow E house to see increasing volume in sales as developers scramble to sell what they made. Dont even try to compare what you call subprime above in china to the subprime here, the fact of the matter is that in China, consumers mortgages are not common and even when they are used, loan to value ratios are very low, so a fall in real estate prices does not lead to the sort of large scale foreclosures that we see here. Try again!!!!!!!!

    • robert.arredondo@sbcglobal.net robert.arredondo Mar 17, 2009 8:32 AM Flag

      I like the volume yesterday. Looks like institutional buying............

 
EJ
9.38+0.22(+2.40%)Jul 11 4:02 PMEDT

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