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Constellation Energy Partners, Ltd. Şti. Message Board

  • dst1152 dst1152 Feb 20, 2008 11:47 AM Flag

    This stock is down 60% in 6 months


    And hits a new all-time low about every week. Are you guys that are here talking this thing up shills for the company???? I don't know how you come up with this rah rah crap. Even with the current market conditions, I don't own ANYTHING else that's crashed like this dog.

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    • tdsnumbers,

      Here is a link to the incentives regarding the distribution. It's on p. 28.

    • jdb or anyone-

      At what distribution level does the 15% management incentive payment come into play?

      I read a lot their 2007 10-K trying to find a specific distribution level but couldn't find it.

    • The companies' dividend has just entered in the range where the 15% management incentive comes into play. It does reduce distributions to unitholders but it motivates management to improve. So, thinking ahead to a time when the dividend is, say, $2.75, at today's stock price you get over 14% yield. Not bad. Then, consider what yield it would take in a fully taxable investment to get 14% and it gets even more attractive.

    • I think it is time to investigate this "dog". Its 11% distribution yield looks enticing.

      I though ATN was possibly a dog, but decided 24.50 was a low enough entry price with almost 10% yield that I bought a bunch and sold some puts at 25 thinking I'd get in at 22.30 on those units. So what happens? The company announces that its drilling program has resulted in 4-6 trillion CF of new reserves, and the units rise to over 30. Too late to buy more for a quick move and now I'll never own those 22.30 units (but I'll keep the option premiums by the look of things).

      It is now time to investigate another "dog", CEP this time.

      I'm not shilling, pumping or dumping. Just observing. Just glad I wasn't in at 50.

      • 2 Replies to baluscher
      • I don't know but, I find the company year end statement to be bullish when viewed in the context of EBTITDA. I heavily excerpted their report (and rounded out the numbrs) trying to pick out the follows:

        The company produced 10,300 MMcfe for ... 2007, up 120 percent from 2006 and resulting in adjusted EBITDA of $53 million, an increase of 130 percent over 2006.

        Net income was $14 million.

        The company produced 4,200 MMcfe for the fourth quarter of 2007, resulting in EBITDA of $20 million …
        The company expects 2008 EBITDA to $100...million, an increase of 90% over 2007 results.

        In addition, CEP announced it is acquiring from ... its sponsor, non-operating interest in producing wells located in the Woodford Shale ….. expected by the end of the first quarter

        CEP will obtain 13 Bcfe of proved developed producing reserves with an estimated daily net production of 6 MMcfe. CEP intends to finance the transaction with debt from its reserve-based lending facility.

        "We delivered solid results and achieved the core objectives "Performance was strong throughout the year in our Black Warrior Basin asset, and through a trio of acquisitions in the Cherokee Basin, we doubled net proved reserves and tripled production. We executed well in 2007, maintaining stable cash flows and delivered on our commitment to increase distributions with a 22 percent increase announced in the fourth quarter.

        Again, FWIW, I consider this report to be bullish, WHAT AM i MISSING????.

        Cogent comments appreciated.

        "The announcement of the dropdown acquisition of the Woodford Shale asset highlights an important competitive advantage," Dawson said. "CEP has grown its portfolio in multiple ways, through basin consolidation, coalbed methane plays and now, a dropdown acquisition from our sponsor. …. The ability to execute mutually beneficial dropdown transactions was one of the main commercial concepts considered when Constellation Energy formed CEP, .... In the future, as Constellation Energy further develops its properties, we will look to make other dropdown acquisitions.

      • I'm going to be that annoying guy who just came upon a stock that everyone here knows really well. but CEP's chart looks like a screaming buy, plus the 11% distribution, but why has it divebombed as it has over the past 6 months? nothing in the news clues me in. Can someone explain this a little?

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