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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • rman707 rman707 May 3, 2011 9:42 AM Flag

    What's going on

    can this jump be about earnings? Seems unlikely to me.

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    • I think it's about two things. Probably most important is company reiteration that they expect to have the NDA in 'soon,' which many analysts seem to have doubted. I found the language a bit less assured than it had bee about HOW soon, but they definitely contradicted the idea that it could be as late as November (which I've read at least one). Less important, but meaningful, was the number of phase 2s, including investigator-sponsored ones, being started. I've put up the estimate here previously: INCY is fully priced if you assume only on-label use of 424ib. A higher valuation is only justified by drug use beyond the contemplated label. Once a drug is on the market, positive phase 2s can lead to immediate usage expansion.

    • There's also this:

      May 3, 2011 10:14 AM EDT

      Leerink Swann upgraded Incyte (NASDAQ: INCY) from Market Perform
      to Outperform.

      Leerink analyst says, "We are upgrading INCY based on our view that over time it will shift the discussion from its role as a palliative agent to one as a truly disease modifying agent. We expect the disease modifying evidence (early signals from COMFORT-I & II then more pronounced versus historical controls over time) to drive both broader uptake in MF plus steady accumulation of patients. For our recent work on INCY, see our Heme-Onc Update and our ASH_Wrap-Up); we've recently also spoken with other MEDACorp hematologists which has helped crystallize our thinking. Our valuation range rises from hi teens to mid-$20s."

    • Well, it appears that this is what it's all about:

      7:07AM Incyte beats by $0.11, beats on revs (INCY) 18.26 : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.21 per share, $0.11 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.32); revenues rose 85.0% year/year to $32 mln vs the $19.5 mln consensus. Research and development expenses for the quarter ended March 31, 2011 were $36.3 mln, as compared to $31.4 mln for the same period in 2010. As of March 31, 2011, cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $383.6 mln compared to $424.2 mln as of December 31, 2010. These amounts exclude $15.0 mln to be received from Novartis for the INCB28060 milestone earned and $37.9 mln of restricted cash held in an escrow account reserved for interest payments through October 2012 on the 4.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2015.


      That's quite a jump over $1 per share and the volume seems fairly robust for 30 minutes of trading or so....

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