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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • tjnelis tjnelis Dec 6, 2011 10:14 AM Flag

    incyte appears to be

    falling back into the old pattern again, last 2 days down, so far today, if it closes red more than likely will do so about the next 4 or 5 trading days ahead

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    • lower lows last 3 days now, have now taken out the low on the 1st of dec, next resistance is now 12.50 as currently below the 50dma, personally think it should touch 13 to 12.80 before an upward trend starts again

      moreinfo 424 i see posted 3 key points that could throw a wrench in this
      1 novartis approval of ruxo
      2 Ash conference
      3 News from lilly

      Personally do not believe any will happen this week, feel the ash news will have only a slight effect, ruxo approval can have a sharp effect, depends on the milestone payment from nvs. lilly, in no hurry to present any news imho

      • 3 Replies to tjnelis
      • with harder drops each day after the initial day of the downgrade, looks like incyte will fall through the 12.80 level, maybe it will stabilize at 12.50

      • ASH is potentially very interesting. The 2 big items are the Anderson long-term treatment experience and the survival signal.

        If Incyte is going to go against Tefferi head-on, a CC after the presentation of the Anderson data is the time to start it (very delicate decison, but it'll be great fun to watch if they decide to). In positing a typical 1-year treatment duration, Lucy Lu has implicitly accepted that Tefferi is more right than wrong. Do note that Tefferi will be making his cas at ASH too.

        The survival signal also calls for a CC. Nominally, it would be to "clarify" that this is only a signal, and that it will never be ethically possible to prove a survival benefit. Obviously, the real reason would be to make sure nobody forgets that the signal is there.

        News from Lilly before mid-February would almost certainly be bad. Primary data collection continues (effectively until year-end). Almost the only thing that would show in the first week of analysis would be a disparity in adverse events. Patient response in RA is tricky to score, so even evaluation against the primary endpoint will take a while.

        I suspect that EMA is holding off approval until the full ASH presentations. If they find Tefferi's point acceptable after then, they may limit indications ('confirmed ET' or risk classes; even a duration limit). The European system is very complicated beyond approval, with individual countries retaining a good deal of discretion about labeling and complete discretion about reimbursement.

      • Curious that you view the "novartis approval of ruxo" as a concerning catalyst for you.

        You were not fearful of the FDA's approval of Ruxolitinib at all; yet you would fear Novartis getting approval?

        Novartis is not a regulatory committee.
        They have no say on the approval of Ruxolitinib.
        Novartis works (like Incyte did with the FDA)to seek approval from the EMA for Ruxolitinib.
        So, it's actually the EMA which will give the nod to Ruxolitinib in that case.

        The EMA will most likely follow suit and do what the FDA did. As that is what they have done numerous times in the past.

        If your "shorting syndicate" could make small work of the FDA event; why in the world would it have some problem with Novartis? Novartis is just another company to be shorted; isn't it?

        Are you dispensing ill advice here?

        From what I am able to tell, the only true aspect which makes your group of rats scatter is when The Baker Brothers come calling to buy.

        How come you didn't stand in the way of that event Tom???

    • Hey Tom!

      how ya' doin there, PAL?

      Did you see this video with Cramer?


      What are your thoughts (as a financial industry insider) about Cramer and his remarks to "honest Aaron? Are they buddies of yours outside of work?

      What do you think about old Lucy Lu and her downgrade?

      As our resident R.W. Baird hedge dude, would you be willing to give some relevant, professional views on this stuff as Baird sees it?

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