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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • tjnelis tjnelis Oct 14, 2012 8:39 PM Flag

    lets look at sales

    ok, if incyte says that there was about 18,000 mf patients in the US, and that 2/3rds are moderate to severe cases.....that number drops to 12,000. based on sales estimates for the year of 120m to 135m of who knows what (sell in or sell through model). then if one assumes the average script for ALL currently on the drug is only $40,000.......that gives only 3000 people currently taking the drug. that represents that the sales staff of 60 only average getting one new client, per sales person per week.......hmmmmmmmm, you can fudge the numbers as you like , but i really think that if there were more than 3000 patiens on the drug , it will be a big surpise....based on sales estimates provided.

    yes i can hear maddi in the back ground already, just read on.... the drug will have been on the market nearly a year soon, so to state the roll out was going to gradual is beyond an understatement. so what is the real problems facing jakafi? too many severe cases jumping on, and then their counts dropping to quickly , so then they are off again and not getting back on jakafi is their a lack of moderate cases who can handle dosage levels ? is there a lack of information, for the doctors to use with regards to severe cases and the finding appropriate dosage levels? could there just be to many different mutations existing in the MF client base? IS there really 12,000 moderate to severe cases? was the drug pushed to market to quickly, simply because there was no other available treatment?

    management really needs to answer more of these types of questions!!! hope fully some of this might possibly be talked about in the upcoming 3q results and CC. but with the short action currently taking place, and short move in packs, having done there number to hgsi, and dndn to name a couple, and anything less than stellar will sink this ship!!!!! imho

    listen closely maddi, i am not saying it is a bad drug11 i am questioning why it seems to be having so many issues with getting more of the 12,000 patients on the medication?

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    • Sink thia ship? I know nothing about HGSI, but Dendreon suffered actual damage because it was under-funded while the market was going against it. And it seems to have recovered anyway. Incyte is not under-funded.

      Incyte is suffering from one lousy CC. A good CC won't fix the damage, but it will stabilize things and permit results to take over. We know there's a milestone payment coming when Jakavi is priced in "enough" (probably 30-50% by population) of Europe (Germany is both big and fairly easy; adding two of France, Spain or Italy would likely be enough for the milestone--educated guess is May). There is probably a milestone for initiation of a baricitinib phase 3. The most likely reason for management silence on the deep pipeline is negotiations that offer hope of a substantial payment. So while the Jakafi sales ramp is important, it isn't the only source of cash.

      The initial dose of Jakafi issue seems to be mostly a hand-holding one. Patients do not, in fact, go to dangerously low platelet counts. They appear to their physicians as if they're headed into danger. The need for close patient supervision in the first couple months of treatment is a more important practical issue than anticipated. As rollout problems go, this is pretty small. The more important issue was always going to be frequency of infections in a less-supervised population, and no increase has been reported.

 
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