I am a hematologist with 40 years of experience and I think CYCC represents a fantastic buy for the following reasons:
1.On 10/15 data was released that sapacitabine is highly effective in prolonging life in a group of patients with advanced and refractory myelodysplastic syndrome(MDS). The data was from MD Anderson Cancer Center, probably the most respected cancer center in the country, and the data was presented by a luminary in the field, Dr. Kantarjian. The drug will be on fast track to get FDA approval for MDS under orphan drug status, with its many patent and tax advantages.
2. Sapacitabine is already under a special SPA review process for FDA approval in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia(AML); if it passes the pre-set criteria, approval is assured. The preliminary results strongly suggest efficacy as well as a very low level of toxicity, primarily diaharrea. Many patients are doing quite well more then one year into their Rx with a simple oral regimen and with a minimum of time in hospital.
3. Sapacitabine is ORAL. This is a tremendous benefit for patients and their families and allows for considerable cost savings.
4. Sapacitabine also appears to have efficacy in non-small cell lung cancer and trials are under way.
5. Sapacitabine may well have efficacy in many BRACA positive solid cancers.
6. There are several other promising drugs in the pipeline
7. The capitalization of the company is only 60 million; virtually any biotech company with a viable product has a capitalization in the hundreds of millions, if not a billion +.
8. CCYC is followed by only one analyst and there has been no recent report on the company. As additional analysts pick up the company, upward momentum is highly likely.
9. Data on the AML study will be presented at the American Society of Hematology meeting in
Atlanta on 12/7-12/11, generating favorable press.
I could go on, but I think you get the gist.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I looked quickly at internet info on the drug. It looks very good for its purpose, but its cytotoxicity and mutagenicity make it unpromising for conditions with less ominous prognosis (probably including most cases of MDS). It probably won't compete with Jakafi even in MF, and surely not in PV and ET. However, because the label will carry a dramatic survival claim, it is likely to sell in quickly. Commercialization is probably about 30 months off.