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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Nov 1, 2012 12:16 PM Flag

    Reaction to Nov 1, 2012 CC

    Sales were good enough. Presentation was good enough. It'll serve as a spacer to separate us from the atrocious previous CC. NOTHING could repair all that damage at once.

    Interesting observations, in no particular order: We [or I] learned that Incyte gets to choose which Lilly joint programs it wants to buy enhanced royalties in (for 30% of ongoing costs) AFTER seeing phase 2 results. Among new Jakafi patients, 30% asked their physicians about it based on information from other patients. While an extreme long shot, the imaginable nephropathy market is much larger than I realized. The pussyfooting around "other, more obvious, opportunities" says "cancer cachexia" to me; I hadn't thought about '050 in that light, but it makes sense.

    The biggest whoops I noticed was the answer on whether requirements for pre-approval are slowing Jakafi uptake. The confusion was fixed quickly, but the answer was still short of excellent (pre-approval is not the rate limiting step).

    The audiences that matter in controlling share price are buy-side analysts and portfolio-runners, both groups difficult to sample. My VERY limited feedback about the buy-siders is that they smell money in Incyte, but were scared off by the bad CC. Again, a good one doesn't cancel out the bad one, but it takes the edge off the fear. I have no feedback at all about portfolio runners, but if they stop getting the fearful vibes from their analysts, they are likely to short INCY a bit less.

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