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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Nov 15, 2012 9:38 AM Flag

    Baricitinib in phase 3

    I really wanted to say something in the milestone payment topic, but tj and maddi are already pulling hair there. Please let's have some self-restraint in this topic.

    Formal start of the p3 was a week or two earlier than I'd have expected and the $50MM payment is nice, but neither is any patch on a surprise. More institutional MMs will attach value to a drug actually in a p3 than will credit one "sure to advance to" p3, so there ought to be some medium-term price increase, on average.

    The effect of the awful CC has been blunted a bit by a good one, but my rule of thumb is that it takes a year (ie, 3 good CCs) to be forgiven for a public humiliation. And as long as the deep pipeline is tied up in some kind of childish-looking obscurity there's a real risk of future embarrassment.

    I'll do a little shorter-term predicting [remembering that I'm bad at it]: we're in tax-selling season, which should be a modest weight on INCY. In about 3 weeks we start small company buying season. I think Incyte looks good enough with its share of bari and cash in hand to participate, but not fully. Let's say that $24 a share looks possible for the next CC. Between then and the critical third CC after the flub there's a good chance of making the Jakavi milestone, so the loss in the Spring "Winter for health care" ought to be moderated.

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