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Incyte Corporation Message Board

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  • jacosa jacosa Nov 17, 2012 12:07 PM Flag

    Did we hit bottom

    Read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" and don't expect more from technical analysis than it can give. And with high frequency trading, the time scale that TA is good for has shrunk, possibly to under 5 minutes.

    Some market seasonalities stand up pretty well. We can modify those by awareness--for a very germane instance, tax selling is likely to be severe this year because big players anticipate taking a lot of profits at year-end to beat the threatened increase in capital gains taxes, and even at the lower rate they want to cut their exposure. Tax selling season has lately ended in early December. So chronologically, I think we're close to the bottom. As I've pointed out often, the present INCY price is far below anything justified by fundamentals (Yeah, the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent, but as I said above, I think we have a time scale to look at here). We're coming into two favorable seasonalities for INCY: the "January Effect" (it sorta starts in mid-December lately) favoring small companies and The Jan-Mar strong season for health care (PARTLY explained by people emptying their health care expense plans by year-end and thus generating good calender q4 results--but it was apparent before such plans became widespread).

    Yeah, the "Austerity bomb" (hey, I'm a Rockefeller/Javits/Case Republican--that is, practically a socialist--I prefer that term to "Fiscal cliff") is a threat. I'm predicting with moderate confidence that the "no tax increases of any size or kind ever for any reason" bright line is going to fall. Without that, there is a decent chance that our governcritters can make some compromises that actually lead to economic improvement.

 
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