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  • buybyebi buybyebi Dec 11, 2012 3:41 PM Flag

    Another big Opportunity?

    So what been missing other than stock performance? What are the negatives you see?

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    • Weak hand at the very top.

      • 4 Replies to stillinshock
      • Oh you mean technically...perhaps. Though I think the chart is still a buy. BTW this is from Merrill Lynch and published yesterday:
        Improving Jakafi profile, needs time to sink in:

        In our view there were two important updates at the American Society for
        Hematology (ASH) meeting that should improve physician perception and
        ultimately drive greater adoption of INCY's first-in-class marketed drug Jakafi for
        myelofibrosis: (1) an increasingly convincing survival benefit and (2) a dosing
        regimen that will limit premature discontinuations. Nonetheless, we believe that
        additional data in 2013 supporting both of these drivers are required to convince
        prescribers of an improved profile (especially survival, where physicians have a
        bias that lack of improvement on marrow progression means survival benefit can't
        happen), and that it may take into 2014 before this attitude shift translates into a
        notable sales inflection.
        Key points:
        1) Longer follow up from the COMFORT-1 study showed a persistent survival
        benefit for Jakafi over placebo with 102 weeks of follow up (27 vs. 41 deaths,
        HR=0.58, 95% CI: 0.36-0.95, p 0.028), compared to initial follow up of 51 weeks
        (13 vs. 24 deaths, HR=0.50; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.98; P = 0.04). This benefit was
        despite placebo crossover.
        (2) New data for COMFORT-2 also showed a survival benefit of the same
        magnitude (20 vs. 16 deaths, but 2:1 randomization, HR=0.51, 95% CI: 0.26-0.99,
        p 0.041). However, there was a large proportion of missing survival data because
        it was not initially collected and an imbalance in missing data (14% Jakafi, 27%
        control) possibly driven by control patients discontinuing at heavier rates; there is
        an ongoing effort to collect these data under an amendment that will improve the
        quality of the data.
        (3) New data support starting patients on 10mg BID, while the current label
        recommends starting patients on 15-20mg BID (which has led to premature
        discontinuation). Final data from a low platelet count study and new data from a
        not yet presented alternative dosing study (start at 10mg for 12 weeks before
        titrating) will be available in 2013, and should be incorporated into the label in
        2014.

      • Makes me think that even in a buyout situation we will come up short.

      • Oh...you mean technically INCY is weak...perhaps. But in my opinion the chart is good; not withstanding today's action.

      • So your'e thinking technically it's weak...perhaps. I read the chart differently and see it still as a buy. BTW here is recent research from Merrill Lynch:

        Improving Jakafi profile, needs time to sink in:

        In our view there were two important updates at the American Society for
        Hematology (ASH) meeting that should improve physician perception and
        ultimately drive greater adoption of INCY's first-in-class marketed drug Jakafi for
        myelofibrosis: (1) an increasingly convincing survival benefit and (2) a dosing
        regimen that will limit premature discontinuations. Nonetheless, we believe that
        additional data in 2013 supporting both of these drivers are required to convince
        prescribers of an improved profile (especially survival, where physicians have a
        bias that lack of improvement on marrow progression means survival benefit can't
        happen), and that it may take into 2014 before this attitude shift translates into a
        notable sales inflection.
        Key points:
        1) Longer follow up from the COMFORT-1 study showed a persistent survival
        benefit for Jakafi over placebo with 102 weeks of follow up (27 vs. 41 deaths,
        HR=0.58, 95% CI: 0.36-0.95, p 0.028), compared to initial follow up of 51 weeks
        (13 vs. 24 deaths, HR=0.50; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.98; P = 0.04). This benefit was
        despite placebo crossover.
        (2) New data for COMFORT-2 also showed a survival benefit of the same
        magnitude (20 vs. 16 deaths, but 2:1 randomization, HR=0.51, 95% CI: 0.26-0.99,
        p 0.041). However, there was a large proportion of missing survival data because
        it was not initially collected and an imbalance in missing data (14% Jakafi, 27%
        control) possibly driven by control patients discontinuing at heavier rates; there is
        an ongoing effort to collect these data under an amendment that will improve the
        quality of the data.
        (3) New data support starting patients on 10mg BID, while the current label
        recommends starting patients on 15-20mg BID (which has led to premature
        discontinuation). Final data from a low platelet count study and new data from a
        not yet presented alternative dosing study (start at 10mg for 12 weeks before
        titrating) will be available in 2013, and should be incorporated into the label in
        2014.

        Sentiment: Buy

 
INCY
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