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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Dec 13, 2012 2:13 AM Flag

    Have I mentioned how much I HATE mouthy day traders?

    Probably not, because I only mildly disliked them until the last few days.

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    • Hi Jacosa,

      I just dropped by to say that YOU are one of this company and stocks best defenses against these mouthy creeps which you mentioned

      You know how the game is played on Crap Street; it's ALL about perception. Make it sound (or look) like YMI's buyout spells trouble for INCY and it will start the ball rolling for negativity and shorting.
      It's the most tired game getting played on Crap Street since 2007.
      I see Tom Russo (tjnelis) is still hacking his trash here for R.W. Baird. He is little more than a washed up broken record or a warped one trick pony. Pathetic.

      But you, Sir, said the clearest and best things of all when you defended Incyte in terms of Ruxo sales and the fact that it will take time for Gilead to get YMI's candidate to market (if it ever goes all of the way)
      Take heart and don't despair; every time there is news of either variety, it allows attracts the freak circus to town...... .......but they never stay long, because they have the typical Crap Street 5 minute attention span.

      A Merry Christmas to you and all of the other longs here, Sir. My best to you all!

      • 2 Replies to namxorex
      • Nam good too see you back. You had TJ called out from the start. Jac is a class act!!!

      • The interesting thing is that bear raids against INCY have generally succeeded. Value the Jakafi company at 10x next year's projected sales and you get something above $16. You have a drug in p3 that looks like a $2bln seller (Incyte gets about 1/4). That would normally be over-valued a bit at this stage to the tune of $10 a share (on a value if it succeeds around $30 a share). You have all sorts of potential usage expansion for ruxo, which can hit at any moment (reasonably worth $5 a share today). Not to even mention that Jakavi is being groomed for a fast European rollout in about 6 months, with Incyte getting a milestone and maybe 15% of its US earnings. And a deeper pipeline with SOME value. There's so much THERE there that it ought to hold up to just about anything.

        So what's going on? My best guess is that since essentially all of the float is in institutional hands, and is, in fact, probably 75+% held as part of "health care baskets," Only a small number of shares are being moved around. The institutions with the stock held in baskets are neither buying nor selling and other institutions have all they want (but may sell a little at peaks) It creates a very odd situation where the median share is valued in the low 20s and is locked up, but the marginal share is priced in a $16-19 range. Paradoxical. The key to the exercise may be the convertible issue. A lot of shares are borrowed and shorted to hedge it. If it is removed, either by repurchase or conversion, the dilution may be more than offset by the resistance to bear raids that a larger float confers. Maybe.

        And I thought organic chemistry was complicated.

 
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