says some really interesting things from management
1. company not up for sale anytime soon, as there is a clawback on the tax relief until 2018
2. management believes it must have a big pipeline ahead. why else would it want to double
its present overhead by 2018,,,,,roughly going from 80m a q to breakeven to 160m
3. are jakafi sales breaking out? instead to flattening out?
4 could there be a bigger buyback clause with lly after p3?
hurdles ahead in the road or not
1 fiscal cliff
2 obama care
3 no new drugs, or new uses of a drug on the market in 2013, possibly 2014
4 is there enough money , to accomplish this, or will there be shareholder dilution?
I've been saying for years, literally, that sale of the company looks remote. I've also been saying since Summer that something big other than a buyout has to be in the works to justify the ongoing embarrassment of the "dark" pipeline.
Obamacare is mostly a plus for a company with a costly life-saving drug. I've been told that there IS a problem for small drug developers: it explicitly lets insurance companies off the hook on paying for off-label uses of drugs. Too many important cancer drugs are used off-label for that to be allowed to turn into flat denial of coverage, but it'll make life harder.
I used to talk constantly about the stretched-'S' shape of the typical drug adoption curve. We've been living on the low-slope leading toe of that curve for Jakafi. At some moment we get to the middle steep part; I'll guess by Summer. If the safety profile still looks as good then as it has so far, there should be a lot of pressure to put the 10% of PV patients and maybe 5% of ET patients who are sickest onto it too, which will let the steep part run longer than it would otherwise.
Whatever the hush-hush dealing is about, and however delicate it may be, it pretty much has to end by the time marketing for bari' becomes the major focus--say a year and a half (I get the image of a woman pregnant for 3 years). I really can't imagine that much suffering being assumed for anything that doesn't generate enough money to do independent drug development (say, $a couple hundred MM). All this secrecy doesn't say pure financial maneuvering (high dilution). Wouldn't be too surprising to see the deal sweetened with SOME dilution, though.
thanks jasoca, i still feel that the numbers taking jakafi are quite low 3000-4000 , leaving upwards to nearly 10,000 still not pursuing the drug for what ever reason, based on the numbers by Incyte. I think that Tefferi, damage is still out there and that there are a lot of sick patients out there that are still listening to him or are reluctant to move forward as they want to see what is happeneing with jakafi longer term
It is all about state of Delaware giving them incentive to remain in Delaware. Both PA and NJ want them to relocate. They are outgrowing their present space. I agree that big things are on horizon as they are doubling headcount.