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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • tjnelis tjnelis Dec 20, 2012 12:28 PM Flag

    incyte recently awarded tax refund/abatemen/relief

    says some really interesting things from management
    1. company not up for sale anytime soon, as there is a clawback on the tax relief until 2018
    2. management believes it must have a big pipeline ahead. why else would it want to double
    its present overhead by 2018,,,,,roughly going from 80m a q to breakeven to 160m
    3. are jakafi sales breaking out? instead to flattening out?
    4 could there be a bigger buyback clause with lly after p3?

    hurdles ahead in the road or not
    1 fiscal cliff
    2 obama care
    3 no new drugs, or new uses of a drug on the market in 2013, possibly 2014
    4 is there enough money , to accomplish this, or will there be shareholder dilution?

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    • I've been saying for years, literally, that sale of the company looks remote. I've also been saying since Summer that something big other than a buyout has to be in the works to justify the ongoing embarrassment of the "dark" pipeline.

      Obamacare is mostly a plus for a company with a costly life-saving drug. I've been told that there IS a problem for small drug developers: it explicitly lets insurance companies off the hook on paying for off-label uses of drugs. Too many important cancer drugs are used off-label for that to be allowed to turn into flat denial of coverage, but it'll make life harder.

      I used to talk constantly about the stretched-'S' shape of the typical drug adoption curve. We've been living on the low-slope leading toe of that curve for Jakafi. At some moment we get to the middle steep part; I'll guess by Summer. If the safety profile still looks as good then as it has so far, there should be a lot of pressure to put the 10% of PV patients and maybe 5% of ET patients who are sickest onto it too, which will let the steep part run longer than it would otherwise.

      Whatever the hush-hush dealing is about, and however delicate it may be, it pretty much has to end by the time marketing for bari' becomes the major focus--say a year and a half (I get the image of a woman pregnant for 3 years). I really can't imagine that much suffering being assumed for anything that doesn't generate enough money to do independent drug development (say, $a couple hundred MM). All this secrecy doesn't say pure financial maneuvering (high dilution). Wouldn't be too surprising to see the deal sweetened with SOME dilution, though.

    • Forgot to add.....we are talking 10 million dollars...not enough for anyone to hesitate buying them! Please keep it real.....if possible?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • TJ,

      It is all about state of Delaware giving them incentive to remain in Delaware. Both PA and NJ want them to relocate. They are outgrowing their present space. I agree that big things are on horizon as they are doubling headcount.

 
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