First--please let's not squabble in this topic. Second: I'd appreciate it if at least m and t, who occasionally show some ability to control themselves, refrain from starting new topics to taunt those they disagree with for a couple days,.. let's try to keep this on the first page of the topic list until it's talked out.
Pretty good CC, which is interesting in itself. Slow growth projection and dark pipeline that couldn't be discussed were here again, but handled infinitely better than in the disastrous CC.
But '110 has a bit of light shined on it! Not that you can keep it very secret with multiple p2s going. The problem with discussing the new candidates is at least partly explained: several candidates are JAK inhibitors, mostly in the inflam and onco spaces. The licenses on ruxo and bari have some vague boilerplate in them about similar drugs for similar indications, and an ill-considered word might send the lawyers into a frenzy.
Jakafi growth projection MIGHT have been an intentional lowball, but a bigger number would have to assume effectiveness of patient requests and of peer-to-peer recommendations. They said there's some evidence of the former, but it's perfectly justifiable to take a Missourian attitude to their growth. So basically, that projection is what the sales force is expected to be able to generate. It may be disappointing to some, but it should be enough to make Incyte profitable on a continuing business basis.
As Rachel McMinn elicited, the pancreatic cancer trial has passed the "May be stopped for futility" milestone. In a real sense, that's all that's needed if it makes patients feel better. There was some talk about whether a spectacular p2 result (unlikely) could justify a label expansion (very unlikely), but everyone knows that drugs are routinely used off-label in oncology.
No news is good news on bari. We'll hear when everyone does.
Jakavi is going about as expected. Sales in the countries where you can get going without approval of pricing. We know the FORM of the milestone to be met: approved pricing in a subset of European countries. We can be pretty sure that set includes UK, FR, ES, IT (the big ex-DE markets). NICE may choose to be difficult, but they are really pretty likely to come around grudgingly in the next few months. But Spain is in chaos and Italy is having elections, so I only consider France a gimme by the next CC. So I still expect the payment in late Summer.
Jakafi sales were absolutely low balled for next year. We closed 2012 at a run rate of $44 US. Just maintaining this gives us $176 million for 2013....based on limited drop offs for whatever reason. 39110 is going to be big....just check out the number of clinical trials going on..
Thanks for your thoughts..... I think we may have seen the last of TJ....sorry that I play his game, but some folks...even those on MB get under my skin...