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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • ironhorse121288 ironhorse121288 Mar 5, 2013 9:05 PM Flag

    Yo jacossa

    Thoughts on Bristol-Myers as a potential suitor for incy? See Mondays WSJ article stating potential acquisition target to include organizations with medicines that complement Bristol's portfolio of drugs including fibrosis.

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    • Fundamentally bad.

      Management of Incyte and a substantial fraction of the large holders anticipate a $2bln+ US ruxo market, + royalties from a similar-sized market ex-US + royalties on a $3bln bari market + an exciting new candidate on a time scale that they can live with (not an ordinary investor's time scale).

      A potential acquirer sees a slowly-developing Jakafi market, perhaps $800MM potential size treating MF, and some other promising but unproven projects. The only big possibility that might prove out in under 14 months is ruxo for cancer cachexia--and that would be an insecure business for years while experience was gathered.

      So you get a bid under $30 and an asked over $60. Friendly deal very unlikely. Hostile deal MIGHT succeed in the $50 range, but when you allow for defections that isn't a whole lot cheaper than the asked.

      Someone COULD step up, but even at $30 (about $4bln total) you're talking about more than a fill-in deal.

      And myelofibrosis, despite its name, is not fundamentally a fibrotic disease.

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