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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • maddison3 maddison3 May 7, 2013 6:59 AM Flag

    Goldman downgrade

    I agree with EJ...don't like their motive.... They were not even on the earnings call! They want cheap shares. just more baloney from Wall Street.... Would love to see us green today! I think most investors will see through this downgrade for what it is! Of course this does not include the 2 dingelberries!

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    • I take a Golden Slacks downgrade as a classic buy signal. As a for instance, they downgraded Boyd entertainment (BYD) early this year just before some big moves by BYD. At the time it was about $8. After the downgrade it sank to about $6. The downgrade created a huge buying opportunity. BYD closed today at $13. Those who took it as the buy signal it was ended up doubling. Good to see you here Kutz.

    • They HAVE to be kidding. Given that FDA is willing to leave the PML signal as an "other events encountered" item on the label, Jakafi for on-label use is worth at least $17 a share by itself (and for people using Jakafi on-label, PML isn't even a consideration--they're too sick to worry). A couple hundred patients are already paying the MF price to treat their PV (says Rachel McMinn); you can't seriously suggest that there will be NO increase in earnings as PV comes on to the label [a gimme] (and the avg selling price presumably drops some). You HAVE to assume that with all the happy talk about the PC trial and '110 development, and the milestone on the cMET inhibitor at least one of those will be worth something. And of course bari is the rhinoceros in the room--we KNOW that it's safe, certainly safer than tofa, it makes people feel better and Lilly's p3 is designed knowing that structural change will be a focus for regulators.

      A $17 TARGET is simply brainless. Since Goldman didn't get to be Goldman by stupidity, I expect a target price revision to at least $20 within the month. They may keep the sell, possibly in part for internal political reasons.

      Me? I don't like to call prices, but $30 in a year and a half looks pretty conservative.

      Ok, we're talking about a SELL rating, and I DO see a negative worth keeping in mind. We're pretty sure that Dr. Paul would like his baby to introduce a completely unpartnered drug before he retires. If that was to turn into an obsession, it could harm the long-term prospects of Incyte--choose from sub-optimal partnership/licensing deals on other candidates, dilution or a badly under-supported drug introduction. Just a cloud, no bigger than a man's hand.

    • Is not a downgrade, they resume their coverage of sell.

 
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