Just listen to it. Dr Paul, hemming and hawing, gives the best explanation I've heard about why you'd want JAK 1 only compounds in your pipeline even if they give you commercial problems with the 1 & 2 mixed inhibitors. Its the one member of the family that you can afford to beat on really hard, and there are some new targets (like IBD) where that option looks potentially useful.
And the suggestion of maybe having a LONG presentation on the whole pipeline? That would eliminate a good deal of the risk of nasty surprise leaks. It would also reassure us that possible conflicts with existing partners had been addressed.
If you've read a bunch of my posts, you know that I consider 6 months very near term. The working pros are very good at sucking out all the juice over shorter time spans, especially from a highly-institutional issue like Incyte. They chat, they know who feels what way. It doesn't have to be material NPI, shared working knowledge can be enough.
That said, a really good result in the PC trial would shift everything upward. Dr Paul sounded a little less optimistic than usual at BoA, but since he isn't supposed to know anything at all about clinical results (and if you believe that...) it could just be jet lag. He sounded bored by reversal of fibrotic changes in MF, too, and that is going to prompt some chatter. If '110 or its sisters show promise against inflammatory bowel disease, we could get a buck or two on speculation. Success of the RA trials could prompt a move; results there are about a year off. The one thing Dr Friedman sounded enthusiastic about was the IDO inhibitor. I think the overwhelming preference among observers is for drugs that blast cancer themselves, rather than boosting immune responses, but something could come from there by EoY.
And don't confuse me with a real expert. I can follow the biomed stuff after hitting the books. I know how the hands-on guys think and I have lots of investing experience. I guess exposure to FDA behavior from multiple viewpoints is something, I can't see the biomed stuff coming, nor do financial statements speak to me. FDA retains the ability to surprise. And experience??? 1999-2011 was outside anyone's experience. I'm struggling to recall the days when a growing actual business generated returns for owners.