I'm no expert either. I expect INCY to stay between $19.90 and $25.20 until significant news comes out. Possible significant events before YE would be any kind of success in RECAP, actual buzz about marrow structure in Jakafi patients or happy talk about results with bari vs nephropathy. In deference to Dr Paul's enthusiasm, maybe something about the IDO inhibitor. To be fair, another rare opportunistic infection associated with Jakafi could cost a couple of bucks.
I've been thinking (always dangerous). Those marrow structure improvements, while probably meaningless clinically, are promotable as hell. That ought to reduce the risk of a slow sales quarter in the next year and effectively raise the bottom of the trading range to, ohh... $20.50. I hesitate here, because this isn't really a shift in the price at which INCY will be perceived as a shrieking bargain, but a reduced probability of the sort of event that might drive it down. This is separate from the possibility of buzz about the findings: one is something for detail men to talk about, the other would be something physicians and patients would talk about.
I am not expert but my thought is that INCY is quite heavy with institutional holdings so one of institution probably decided to unload due to market over bought condition like so many analysts talk on news media.
With market at peak, many buyers are not coming out to buy at this time ....with unbalanced seller shares...price declined more deeply than usual but you should not be concern with excellent fundamental going into second half of year where general market and INCY will get tail wind to year end.