mr. maddison , no predictions for the week, share price NEEDS to be above 200dma that is key, will do a redo of 2nd results, as soon as incyte finishes the repurchase of the senior debt( looking at interest expense) as this is a special item for the q.......estimating now as an ex-item no earnings for the q
This is one of several reasons I have little use for technical talk. The stock needs to be above the 200dma to go up. Duh. It's bad if the stock goes below the 200dma. Duh. What, by the way, happened when the stock dropped below the 200dma? Pretty much nothing.
Even my mild technical viewpoint: the stock was in a $20+ to $25+ trading range. What happened when it dropped below the floor? Again, not much. Of course, being a reluctant technician all I ever said was that something would have to change to get the stock out of that range, and such a move would tell us that the change was seen (by portfolio runners, who aren't necessarily geniuses) as meaningful.
We're thus, to my thinking, in a bit of a quandary. Something has changed, and in a way that means something to portfolio runners, but it isn't clear what it is. The most visible thing is retirement of the debt, but that looks pretty neutral to me. The milestone payment for European introduction is MOST unlikely to arrive in Q2, but except for one probable mis-statement that hasn't been seen as likely since Autumn. The Jakafi withdrawal syndrome report was there, but on examination is an even bigger joke than Dr Tefferi's version. We're approaching the anniversary of The Very Bad Conference Call--that in itself seems like a weak reason. My best guess is that we're seeing a replay of what made that year-ago call so bad: news is seen as due and overdue, and nothing is being released. Not so much that something bad is seen happening, as that it must be bad that anticipated good news (most likely partnering of the pure JAK-1 drugs) is not happening.