As always, let's try to keep this concrete and non-combative. Certainly no short-term share price predictions.
My main observation is that this was almost a textbook case of learning from your mistakes. Compared to a year ago, the presenters were rested, thoroughly prepared and coached. Dr Paul will never be Rachel Ray, but he didn't sound like the oracle of doom either. The comments on the newly-revealed candidate were kept short and informative (the mode of action had been the subject of speculation, and that was answered flatly). US financials were handled well, and anything that needed to be referred to Novartis was pointed out (If I was the speaking coach they would have been told to leave it at that; trying to be helpful plays well, but can bite you later. I gather from their extra sentences that Novartis doesn't give them enormously more detail than they give the general public)
Obviously the business is going about as projected. The survival benefit STILL won't go on the Jakafi label any time soon, but it's becoming noticeable enough that hem-oncs are likely to start thinking about it.
Really just bumping this topic higher than some [mostly] noise ones, but a couple of thought questions.
Suppose Incyte is allowed to put the plots showing a survival benefit in MF into the package insert, but not to say that they show a survival benefit (that's what I heard them as saying FDA is considering). How does that play for sales? Prescribers ARE very sensitive to what isn't said. Right now, detailers are allowed to say "You might find such-and-so papers interesting." If the plots but not the interpretations are on the insert, will they be able to go the next step and hand out copies of the papers?
Are you struck by the deliberateness of the clinical trials program for Jak-1 selective compounds? Could it have something to do with keeping fences mended vs Lilly and Novartis?
I'm sure that 90% or more of prescribing doctors would be able to interpret a Kaplan-Meier survival chart. In any event, as part of an agreement with FDA, detailers would be allowed to help those few medical practitioners unable to do so. Yes, I believe you are correct in your reasoning regarding the deliberate procession of the JAK-1 trials.
I am eager to found out the top-line data for the ruxo pancreatic cancer trial which is slated for later on this quarter.